Two brothers in dispute

By Lee Chang-sup

South Koreans are not in the mood to embrace North Koreans as brothers ― a sentiment that has become apparent after Pyongyang’s recent attack on civilians. The North’s killing of them has sidelined the doves in the South, who have begun to question whether the Northerners are brothers at all.

For the first time in decades, many South Koreans are talking about the possibility of at least a limited war. So far the consensus was that a second Korean war was unimaginable because it would escalate into a Sino-U.S. war.

Many uncomfortable developments point to this possibility.

First, the Kim Jong-il regime has signaled that military provocations are the only way to teach lessons to what it believes to be the recalcitrant Lee Myung-bak administration. Seoul’s denuclearization-before-aid stance is unwavering. Its calculated military adventurism will intensify as the North’s generals are hell-bent on commanding respect from heir-apparent Kim Jong-un.

Second, the South can no longer sit idle in the face of civilian causalities. President Lee ruled out dialogue, diplomacy and economic engagement ― at least for the time being ― with the North following the Nov. 23 attack.

Theoretically, two remaining options are on the cards. One is to launch targeted and covert military strikes in revenge against any of North Korea’s additional provocations, with 10 or 100 times more fire power at the risk of at least a limited war. The other is to plot the collapse of the Kim regime. These two dangerous options are not easy to implement.

President Lee did not say anything about the prevention of a war in his Monday message to the nation. This made nervous people feel more uncomfortable than before.

Lee said he would no longer expect the North to scrap its nuclear weapons and military adventurism. He did not demand even an apology for civilian causalities. He reaffirmed his view that the Sunshine Policy of engaging the North has resulted in a period of a “humiliating peace.”

President Lee tries to prove that Aesop’s Fable is wrong. He believes that the North Wind is stronger than the Sun. He believes the wind, not the sun, can make a passing traveler remove his cloak. If his belief is proven, the Aesop’s Fable must be rewritten like this. No matter how hard the sun shines, the traveler only wraps his cloak tighter. When the wind blew strongly, the traveler was unable to overcome the wind and had to take his cloak off. Kim Jong-il wants the Sun but does not want to remove his nuclear coat even under the Sun or the Wind. Aesop’s Fable is undergoing a serious test.

Lee also said that the six-party talks for attempting to denuclearize the North are time-consuming and only give the North additional leeway to produce more nuclear bombs.

Third, the National Emergency Management Agency has started an inspection and renovation of nationwide shelters people must be evacuated to in the case of war.

Fourth, the South Korean military mistakenly fired a shell that fell on the southern side of the Demilitarized Zone. If it had hit north of the DMZ, it might have triggered an immediate return of fire from the North.

President Lee has become more hawkish than opinion polls suggest. A survey showed that 45 percent of South Koreans want strong retaliation against the North even if this escalates into a serious inter-Korean clash. Thirty-four percent want Seoul to exhibit patience and restraint.

History shows that a war sometimes took place for reasons beyond logical assumptions although no one wanted a war. Now is the time for the Koreas and the world to seek ways of preventing a war here.

First, the U.S. strategic patience needs critical review. President Barack Obama apparently does not want to be ahead of President Lee in North Korea initiatives. Washington is naive enough to expect China to restrain the North, although its unwavering support in deterrence power is reassuring. It also needs dialogue, diplomacy and hopefully engagement with the North. Obama should know why he won the Nobel Peace Prize prematurely.

Second, national consensus against a war is necessary. Conservatives and liberals are divided over the North Korea policy ― hard-liners should not think that a war would make their family members, friends and associates safe.

Third, President Lee may be wise enough to know Seoul’s lethal action against the North’s future provocations might lead to an uncontrollable escalation of armed conflict. The South should not give the North an excuse for additional provocation.

Fourth, emergency four-party talks are necessary so that the Koreas can discuss ways of preventing armed clashes through the mediation of the United States and China.

Fifth, the Koreas must open a hot line to preclude miscalculation and misjudgment.

Koreas have been without a war for the past six decades although occasional clashes took place. About 85 percent of Koreans do not have experience on war.

Despite the current uneasy tension, South and North Koreans are brothers. Brothers do not try to kill each other although disputes may be serious. Their quarrels are sometimes a storm in a tea cup. When the Koreas regard each other as enemies, not brothers, this story may be different.

Lee Chang-sup is the chief editorial writer of The Korea Times. He can be reached at editorial@koreatimes.co.kr