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| Two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers, upper left, fly in formation with South Korean Air Force F-35A fighter jets and U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter jets over South Korean skies during a joint air drill, Sunday. Courtesy Ministry of Defense |
Pyongyang will continue to raise belligerence, experts say
By Lee Hyo-jin
The United States' strategic assets deployed to South Korea seem to be having a limited effect in deterring North Korea's evolving nuclear threats, according to experts on Monday, as seen by Pyongyang's latest provocation that came just minutes before U.S. strategic bombers entered South Korean skies.
North Korea test-fired yet another ballistic missile on Sunday, the same day U.S. strategic bombers took part in joint air drills with the Republic of Korea Air Force. According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JSC), a short-range ballistic missile was launched from the North's northwestern Tongchang-ri area around 11:05 a.m. and flew about 800 kilometers over land before falling into the waters off its east coast.
The missile was launched some 25 minutes before the two B-1B bombers entered South Korean airspace in a scheduled joint training exercise involving South Korea's F-35A stealth jets and U.S. F-16 fighters.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Monday that the missile launch was "a part of drills simulating a tactical nuclear counterattack against its enemies." This was a reference to Seoul and Washington, which are currently holding the 11-day Freedom Shield joint drill that began March 13.
Experts said Pyongyang's latest show of force is somewhat different from previous ones in that it came in the face of U.S. strategic assets. Strategic assets usually refer to nuclear-powered submarines, nuclear-capable bombers and aircraft carriers.
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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, and his daughter Ju-ae, left, oversee the country's two-day drills simulating tactical nuclear attacks over the weekend, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, Monday. Yonhap |
"Previously, Pyongyang refrained from launching provocations when U.S. strategic assets were deployed in Seoul. Sunday's missile launch reflects Pyongyang's increased confidence against the strategic assets," Shin Jong-woo, a senior analyst at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, told The Korea Times.
Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, pointed out that it is not the first time the North has fired a missile in protest of U.S. strategic assets being deployed to the South.
North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile into the East Sea last September, in an apparent protest against the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan's arrival in Busan for a combined drill with the Republic of Korea Navy. The missile was launched two days after the nuclear-powered carrier docked in Busan's port.
"With the latest provocation, the North has sent a clear message that it no longer fears U.S. military power," Cho said.
But both experts saw this as not meaning that U.S. strategic assets are no longer effective in deterring North Korea's belligerence. "Rather, I would say they are the only means to show the U.S.' commitment to extended deterrence under the current system," Cho said.
When asked whether the North will increase its nuclear threats, Shin said, "Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are likely to escalate in the coming weeks. The continued missile tests are aimed at expanding its weapons arsenal and thereby obtaining global recognition as a nuclear state and getting international sanctions lifted."
Shin said Pyongyang may increase its belligerence by firing short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads or its new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Cho also anticipated that Pyongyang will stick to missile test fires ― instead of artillery shells or aircraft flights ― as its means of protest, as launching missiles is more "cost-effective" in grabbing international attention from the North's perspective.
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