By Frank Ching
Journalist, Commentator in Hong Kong
In a dramatic but little noticed shift, President Dmitry Medvedev has announced that Russia will give top priority to the country’s economic modernization and identified the leading members of the European Union and the United States as countries with which Moscow needs to forge ``special modernization alliances.’’
While China, too, is important, the Russian leader made it clear in his speech that what Russia needs are partnerships with such countries as Germany, France and Italy in Europe and, of course, the United States.
President Medvedev outlined Moscow’s new direction in a speech July 12 to the country’s ambassadors and its representatives to international organizations.
Russia’s new foreign policy emphasis had been foreshadowed in a confidential report prepared by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that was leaked in May and published in the Russian Newsweek.
The Medvedev speech confirms the authenticity of that report, which contained details missing from the president’s public remarks.
Quite strikingly, Medvedev warned of Iran’s nuclear program in words that could have come from the mouth of an American official. ``It is essential to abandon simplistic approaches to this issue,’’ he said. ``It is obvious that Iran is getting close to acquiring nuclear capability that can be used, in theory, to create nuclear weapons.’’
In the past, China had some degree of cover from Russia on issues such as Iran so it was not the only voice opposing harsh sanctions. Thus, in a note to President Medvedev attached to the confidential report, Foreign Minister Lavrov says:
``Particular attention should be paid to monitoring the growing role of China in international affairs [and] proceed from the fundamental importance of consolidating China's position on joint action with us ― with due regard to the evolving situation ― in the G20, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as well as the U.N. Security Council (where our support is often more useful to the Chinese than theirs to us).’’
Aside from economic modernization, Medvedev said Russia’s second biggest challenge was strengthening democratic and civil society institutions in the country.
In words that may sound alarming to Chinese officials, the president said, ``We must promote the humanization of social systems around the world and especially at home. It is in the interests of Russian democracy for as many nations as possible to follow democratic standards in their domestic policy.’’
But then, he reverted to language China likes by saying, ``Of course, there may be no interfering in the domestic affairs of any countries. Such standards should be developed jointly, including nations where democracy has been established only recently, which includes our state and other states where democracy has not yet gained footing ― everyone knows which countries I am referring to.’’
The Russian leader, who in April signed a nuclear arms reduction treaty with President Barack Obama in Prague, visited the United States in June. In his recent speech, he said cooperation with the U.S. should not be limited to missile reductions but should include the technology sector which ``can contribute to the positive agenda in our relations.’’
While acknowledging the importance of the West to Russia’s economic modernization, President Medvedev said it was also important ``to fully take advantage of the potential in the Asia-Pacific.
``We intend to use a similar approach in strengthening our strategic partnership with China,’’ he said. ``Including cooperation in the international arena, to further develop cooperation with India, to reinforce our ties with Japan and with other countries, including, of course, the ASEAN states.’’
Medvedev said Russia’s policy in the Asia-Pacific ``should continue to be aimed at ensuring the safety of our eastern borders and promoting peace and stability in the region.’’
Aside from Mongolia and a sliver of Russian territory adjoining North Korea, China is Russia’s main neighbor in the east. Medvedev’s words constituted a rare admission that Russia is still concerned about the security of its frontier with China.
This is largely for demographic reasons. The population density of the Russian Far East is only about one person per square kilometer while, on the Chinese side, it is more than 100 times greater.
So far, China has not reacted openly to the new Russian policy. No doubt, the Chinese, being pragmatists themselves, will understand why Russia is giving priority to Europe and the United States despite the vaunted ``strategic partnership’’ with China.
After all, Russia is not giving up this partnership. It is simply looking for more partners. But China’s strategic partnership with Russia is changing.