Gender divide among younger voters shapes election

Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea speaks while campaigning for the presidential election near Mount Dobong in Seoul's Dobong District, March 6. Newsis

Women in their 20s to 40s considered key swing voters

By Ko Dong-hwan

Female voters in their 20s to 40s in Korea have become the barometer for who will clinch the presidential election on March 9.

Public opinion surveys conducted in recent months have shown that eligible voters in their 20s and 60s showed more support for Yoon Suk-yeol of the main opposition People Power Party, while those in their 40s and 50s showed greater support for Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea. Those in their 30s were almost equally divided between the two leading candidates, who are now neck-and-neck in their public support ratings.

However, female voters in their 20s to 40s showed the least solidarity in their selections for any one candidate. Rather, they were distributed more evenly between the top two candidates.

Perhaps the most glaring contrast among voters in this election is between the candidate preferences of men and women in their 20s. Twenty-something male voters have in recent years considered themselves "victims of feminism," arguing that they have been pushed aside by their female counterparts in job market competition, due to government support, with the gradual rise of female personalities in the media and in various other fields. Some of them vented their anger at the Moon Jae-in administration, demanding he take responsibility amid their collective self-pity.

Yoon sided with the young male demographic shortly after announcing his presidential bid in June 2021, pledging to abolish the country's Ministry of Gender Equality and Family ― seen by some young men as a pro-female government agency sowing "reverse discrimination" ― and improve the military environment for male enlisted soldiers. His efforts brought young male voters solidly together in a conservative "men's rights" frame.

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Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party raises his fist while campaigning near Dongducheon Station in Dongducheon, Gyeonggi Province, March 6. Newsis

Of course, Yoon's campaign pledges, which cater to young male voters, came at the price of his popularity among young women. Recent public opinion surveys show that female voters in their 20s showed higher support for Lee.

"Compared to young men, women in their 20s are very liberal about current social issues," Kim Hyung-joon, a political expert and politics professor of Myongji University, told The Korea Times. "They are not so hostile to one particular candidate, either. They also stand out among other age groups in that they like to get involved in domestic politics by speaking up for themselves."

Yoon's image as an anti-feminist has rankled not just women in their 20s but also those in their 30s and 40s. It has resulted in many of them still being up in the air about whom to vote for.

Experts say that while Yoon's male-friendly pledges have clearly won him the support of men in their 20s ― who account for 7.5 percent of the country's total eligible voters ― he has lost a significant number of female voters regardless of their age. But the situation hasn't necessarily translated into leverage on Lee's part, as he hasn't been able to draw a big enough majority of female voters to his side as he has wished, either. "Not attracted to either side, young- to middle-aged women are thus considered the most sought-after, as key swing voters," Kim said.

Voters in their 20 to 30s are also considered the age groups that are most likely to switch their preferred candidate at the last minute. Public opinion surveys showed that they were initially widely split between Yoon and Lee, but that gap has diminished more recently. Such signs have been particularly visible in Seoul, home to over 8.3 million voters, where the public support rates from the city's 25 districts for the top two candidates have been more topsy-turvy than in any other city in the country.

It also remains a critical game changer which candidate will receive votes from the former supporters of minor opposition People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo, who dropped out of the race to form a single candidacy with Yoon. The doctor and software entrepreneur-turned-politician had a significant portion of supporters in their 20s to 40s, including women. A recent public opinion survey conducted by Gallup showed that 11 percent of voters in their 30s and 9 percent of voters in their 40s supported Ahn. The figures are high enough potentially to tilt the scale, given the razor-thin difference between Yoon and Lee.

"Ahn had a good deal of female supporters in their 30s, but the age group who supported him the most was (both male and female) voters in their 20s," Kim said. "Those two age groups are both rational and sensitive. Yoon, who had lacked female supporters during his campaign all along, was eager for a united candidacy with Ahn to absorb his supporters. But will the united candidacy induce Ahn's supporters ― especially the women ― to stick to Yoon? Or will it encourage them finally to open their minds to Lee?"

Yoon's biggest weakness has been the concerns about whether the prosecutor-turned-presidential hopeful will turn the country into a "republic of prosecutors" if elected, due to his professional background. For Lee, whether he had actually been involved in the controversial city development project scandal in Seongnam's Daejang-dong remains his Achilles heel.