Kim Jong-ils gamble

On the 16th of February North Korea celebrated the birthday of Marshal Kim Jong-il, the second most important national holiday.

By Andrei Lankov

On Feb. 16, North Korea celebrated the birthday of Marshal Kim Jong-il, the second most important national holiday.

The official report about the celebrations puts General Kim Jong-un first on the list of those dignitaries who accompanied Kim Jong-il during the suitably lavish celebrations. Kim Jong-un, who at the age of 28 seems to be world's youngest serving four-star general, was standing next to the “Dear Leader.” Other generals and marshals stood further away, even though most of them could easily be Kim Jong-un’s grandfathers and have remained in the top leadership for decades.

So, the North Korean media again signaled that the rise of Kim Jong-un to the summits of power continues uninterrupted. Since last summer, the North Koreans have been herded to indoctrination sessions where they are enlightened about the talents of the Young General (or the ``New Star General”) as the junior Kim is sometimes referred to. For the members of bureaucracy, such sessions were launched earlier, in 2009. In September 2010, the name Kim Jong-un was mentioned in open media at the first time, and soon he was promoted to become one of his father’s deputies.

In other words, the transfer of power seems to be is underway. However, one should bear in mind two things. First of all, the official media never mentions explicitly that the Young General is not just a genius of leadership, but also the son of Marshal Kim Jong-il, as well as the grandson of Generalissimo Kim Il-sung. Second, the media has not expressly stated that the Young General is destined to become the next leader of the nation.

The reasons for such silence are easy to understand: although the DPRK is an absolute monarchy in everything but name, theoretically it is still a republic, so some proper appearances have to be kept – for example, the country holds elections (the approval rate of the official candidates is reported to be astonishing 100.0 percent).

In accordance with this line, it is officially considered that Kim Jong-il became the nation’s leader not by an incident of birth, but solely due to his outstanding qualities. In the 1970s, the North Korean propaganda-mongers presented the rise of Kim Jong-il as a spontaneous process, as a reflection of the love he allegedly received among the North Korean people.

Stories about Kim Jong-il were spread informally, through classified channels, and until the early 1980s his portraits were to be placed in private homes only. Of course, the portraits were mass produced and then distributed to households which were also issued instructions on how to handle these images properly, but nonetheless, the appearances of spontaneous outbursts of admiration were kept. Propaganda about Kim Jong-il’s greatness appeared around 1972, but it took a few more years before his name was first mentioned in the open press, and only in 1980 was Kim Jong-il officially promoted as the successor.

The current transfer of power Kim Jong-un is proceeding much faster, but follows the same well-tested track. His name was first mentioned by classified propaganda in 2009, and since September 2010 he has been mentioned openly. Most likely, it is accepted that for some time propaganda should brief the populace about the prince’s superhuman virtues, and only then the Young Star General will officially become the heir of his father.

For those who wonder about Kim Jong-un’s origin, there is a hint ― his dress style. Kim Jong-un is seen in public is in an old-fashioned Mao suite, which is identical to a suit once worn by his grandfather; alternatively, he sports a grey parka and a fur hat which are an exact replica of his father's winter apparel. But these are hints. Formally, the rise of Kim Jong-un is associated with his personal qualities alone.

This approach is understandable: it will give the rising prince enough time to create his own power base, and will also make propaganda marginally more plausible, thus increasing the stability of the post-Kim regime. However, there is a considerable risk involved with such an approach. Technically, Kim Jong-un is merely one of two dozen generals and marshals. If Marshall Kim Jong-il dies before his son is officially and explicitly named the successor, there might be other generals and officials who will be tempted to challenge the Young General’s superiority.

From the standpoint of the Pyongyang elite, which wants to maintain the status quo and thus preserve their own power, the decision not to hurry with Kim Jong-un’s promotion makes sense, but only if his father has a few more years to live. If the health of Kim Jong-il is not maintained, there might be trouble.

In other words, this is a gamble, albeit well-planned. So far the North Korean leadership has usually been able to raise the stakes and still get away with their winnings.

Professor Andrei Lankov was born in St. Petersburg, Russia, and now teaches at Kookmin University in Seoul. He can be reached at anlankov@yahoo.com.