First 6 months of Kim Jong-un

So, half a year has passed since the “Dear Leader,” “Marshall (posthumously promoted to Generalissimo)” Kim Jong-il departed this world. Now is as good a time as any to try to make some sense of the policies of his son, who has been at the helm of the country ever since.

By Andrei Lankov

So, half a year has passed since the “Dear Leader,” “Marshall (posthumously promoted to Generalissimo)” Kim Jong-il departed this world. Now is as good a time as any to try to make some sense of the policies of his son, who has been at the helm of the country ever since.

Within those slightly more than six months the first thing that should be noticed is the remarkable smoothness of the power transition. When Kim Jong-il died, his third son’s promotion to heir designate remained incomplete. Technically, at the time Kim Jong-un had not yet been pronounced the successor and was simply one of a dozen or so top North Korean military and political leaders.

Under other circumstances, such a situation would clearly be a recipe for instability. However, the transition has gone with remarkable swiftness and without a serious hitch. No major political figure has been demoted or disappeared without a trace; no suspicious signs within the military or the political apparatus have yet come to light. Obviously, North Korean decision makers understand perfectly well, that they have to hang together, in order not be hanged separately ― and this is what they have done.

At the same time, Kim Jong-un is yet to take over real power in his country. The North Korean leadership still consists of people who were close advisors to the late Marshall Kim Jong-il. When Kim Jong-un’s people start popping up, they will be easy to spot ― chiefly because they are likely to be so much younger than the average top North Korean bureaucrat of today. However, such young people have yet to emerge and this is a sure sign that the old guard remains in control.

This is why one should not be surprised to see little in the way of change in actual North Korean government policy. Kim Jong-il’s policy line continues to be in effect, with little in the way of alterations.

What has changed is the leadership style itself. Kim Jong-un is much more approachable and outspoken than his father; the late Marshall was not known for charisma, so much so that he is known to have spoken in public to his own people only once. The Young General has already delivered a number of public speeches and has traveled extensively across the country, talking to his subjects directly.

It seems remarkable, if somewhat comical, that the Young General enjoys embracing his people, never missing an opportunity to hug or have physical contact. He has been depicted hugging aged generals and young children, and even slightly undernourished conscripts with great enthusiasm. The North Korean media has lost no time in explaining this as being a manifestation of his unparalleled kindness and (super?) humanity.

There are some other signs of relaxation. For example, women in fashionable trousers and blue jeans have been spotted in Pyongyang ― in the past such dress was banned. Few days ago Kim Jong-un was seen at a concert of a new group playing Western music and where Disney characters were featured.

As another sign, he was accompanied by a mysterious young woman. She might be his sister, but many suspect that she is his wife ― and this is what most North Koreans are likely to assume when they see the sight of them together. This is new: in the past wives of North Korean leaders did not show up in public.

Does it mean that the new leader will be soft? Not necessarily, since in some other fields he took a harsher approach. Kim Jong-un has presided over the largest crackdown on illegal cross-border movements. For the first time in two decades, the North Korean government has managed to significantly reduce illegal migration to China. At the same time, however, Kim Jong-un controlled North Korea has started to send North Korean workers overseas on a hitherto unprecedented level.

In foreign policy, it also remains unclear which direction the leadership is moving. When Kim Jong-un became the country’s leader, relations between the U.S. and the North were improving. And it was under his watch that a major agreement (in the sense that it was the first for quite some time) was signed on Feb. 29. The U.S.-N.K. agreement stipulated that the North should undertake a moratorium on missile and nuclear tests in exchange for shipments of food aid.

However this agreement was immediately broken, in mid-March North Korea declared its intention to launch a satellite using essentially long-range missile technology. This may be seen as a sign of Kim Jong-un’s bellicosity, but such conclusions seem to be half-baked because immediately following the launch, North Korea began to make it known that they would be happy to resume talks with the U.S. again.

So the situation at present in North Korea remains ambiguous. It remains to be seen how Kim Jong-un’s North Korea will develop. One might argue that the Kim Jong-il era has not ended yet. Indeed, it might continue for some months or even years.

Professor Andrei Lankov was born in St. Petersburg, Russia, and now teaches at Kookmin University in Seoul. You can reach him at anlankov@yahoo.com.