Xi's iron grip on power clouds Korea-China relations

President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a summit held in Bali, Indonesia in this Nov. 15, 2022 file photo. Yonhap

By Lee Hyo-jin

Strained relations between Korea and China could continue and possibly worsen under Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose iron grip on power was solidified in a parliamentary vote, according to diplomatic observers, as Beijing becomes increasingly wary of Seoul's tilt toward Washington.

Following the unanimous vote passed at the National People's Congress on Friday, Xi secured a historic third term as president until 2028. He first took power in 2013.

Diplomatic experts think that the tricky relations between Korea and China are unlikely to be resolved under Xi's third term.

"In fact, external factors, such as the intensifying U.S-China rivalry and China's push toward unification with Taiwan, could rise as a source of conflict and worsen relations between Korea and China," said Lee Dong-gyu, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

Unlike his predecessor Moon Jae-in, who pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity aimed at maintaining a diplomatic balance between the U.S. and China, President Yoon Suk Yeol has been overtly leaning toward Washington.

Despite Seoul's explanation that the move is not aimed at excluding a certain country, Beijing has been perceiving it as a hard tilt toward the U.S.' campaign to counter China.

"If Seoul remains silent to Beijing's protests against siding with the U.S., the Chinese government may decide to expand pressure by implementing sanctions on tourism and the economy," said Lee.

On Friday, China again excluded Korea from its second batch of countries that Chinese group tourists are allowed to visit. Exempting the neighboring country ― while permitting tours to distant countries such as Brazil and Uruguay ― is a clear expression of China's discontent concerning Korea's recent moves to strengthen its diplomatic and defense ties with the U.S., said Lee.

The researcher also noted that China's growing pressure on the self-governing island of Taiwan for unification may put Korea and China at odds.

"As Xi begins his third term, he will put his utmost efforts to achieving unification with Taiwan, which he views as his political legacy. How Korea positions itself in this matter will have a big influence on bilateral relations," he said.

China's President Xi Jinping signs a presidential order to appoint the new lineup of the State Council during the fifth plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Sunday. AFP-Yonhap

In February, China called on Korea "to be prudent" on the Taiwan issue, in response to Foreign Minister Park Jin's remarks during an interview with CNN that "Korea is opposed to a unilateral change of the status quo by force."

Kang Joon-young, a professor of Chinese Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, believes that signs of improving ties between Korea and Japan ― which have paved the way for trilateral security cooperation between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington ― are ruffling China's feathers.

The Korean government recently agreed to compensate Korean victims of Japan's wartime forced labor through a public foundation, without direct payments from the Japanese firms that are responsible. The big diplomatic concession from Seoul was welcomed both by Tokyo and Washington.

In late April, Yoon will visit Washington for a summit with his counterpart Joe Biden to deepen the political, economic and security alliance. The summit may accelerate talks on Korea's participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) working group, a U.S.-led security forum that includes Australia, India and Japan, which is purportedly aimed at containing China's assertiveness.

Kang said, "Beijing will definitely be unhappy about this. It is important for the Korean government to assure China that joining Quad is a move to counter mutual humanitarian challenges faced by the member states, not to encircle China."

Korea's foreign ministry, for its part, said it is anticipating a potential visit this year by the Chinese president or a senior official, dismissing speculation that the two countries are at odds over Seoul's close relations with Washington.

"(The) Foreign policies of the Yoon administration do not intend to exclude a certain country," a senior foreign ministry official said in a closed-door briefing, Friday, stressing that China is Korea's major trade partner. He also shared plans to resume high-level talks between the two nations, which had been halted due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Newly elected cabinet ministers bow to Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, during the Fifth Plenary Session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, China, Sunday. China holds two major annual political meetings; the NPC and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference CPPCC which run alongside and together are known as "Lianghui" or "Two Sessions." EPA-Yonhap