Will Korea's east-west political divide occur again this election?

Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea clenches his fists in front of a crowd at the May 18 Public Square in Gwangju, Feb. 18. Newsis

Liberal DPK candidate enjoys massive support in nation's west, and conservative PPP candidate in east

By Ko Dong-hwan

Thoughnot a big nation, Korea has long been divided whenever voters head to the polls. Voters in the nation's western regions sweepingly support liberal candidates, whereas their counterparts in the eastern regions predominantly vote for conservative party candidates.

The voter divide between Korea's east and west is similar to how the United States has, in recent years, become geographically divided between Democratic blue states and Republican red states.

Such regional divisions are still looking to be present in Korea ahead of the March 9 presidential election, with people having expressed their willingness to vote for either Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) or Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative People Power Party (PPP), or remaining as yet undecided in various public opinion surveys.

The National Election Commission on Feb. 25 said that the official total number of Koreans eligible to vote in this election is 44,168,510, including those currently outside of the country. Gyeonggi Province has the largest number of voters with over 11.4 million, followed by Seoul with over 8.3 million, and Busan with over 2.9 million.

The two leading candidates, now neck-and-neck in their public support ratings, have been scrambling with their election camps since the official election campaign began on Feb. 15, to consolidate as much support as possible from their traditionally friendly regions, as well as to entice as many voters as possible in traditionally unfriendly regions and largely neutral regions.

North Gyeongsang Province has been the country's most starkly conservative-friendly ground, with Daegu in the province a long-time stalwart for conservative politicians ― thus known as "the heart of the conservatives." Former President Park Geun-hye, who won the 2012 presidential election as the main conservative party candidate, raked in over 80 percent of the city's voters. Other conservative presidential candidates in the past, like Hong Joon-pyo and Yoo Seung-min in 2017, if considered together, took the majority of the city's votes, with 45 percent and 12 percent, respectively.

The trend has been evident this year as well, with Yoon having recorded nearly 60 percent of the public support rating among residents in the province and the city recently, while Lee had 19 percent, according to the country's three broadcasters, MBC, KBS and SBS, on Feb. 17. Another survey conducted by Kantar Korea from Feb. 27 to March 1 showed Yoon nabbing over 65 percent of public support from the region. (Further details are available on the websites of the survey agencies or the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.) The PPP aims to maximize friendly votes from this region by drawing 80 percent of the votes.

Yoon Suk-yeol of the People's Power Party makes his signature uppercut punch gesture to a crowd of supporters on Dongsung-ro road in Daegu, Feb. 18. Newsis

South Gyeongsang Province, as well as Busan and Ulsan in it, are also tilted towards Yoon, as his popularity there beats Lee's. A public survey by the Korea Society Opinion Institute from Feb. 19-20 showed 52 percent of Busan residents, 51 percent of Ulsan residents and 53 percent in the residents of the rest of the province supported Yoon, while Lee recorded 32 percent, 31 percent and 30 percent, respectively.

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Whereas the country's eastern regions are firmly in support of Yoon, the opposite scenario has been occurring in the west. The North and South Jeolla Provinces, along with Gwangju (the largest independent metropolis city in the South), have been the country's staunch democratic regions. From a Kantar Korea survey conducted from Feb. 27 to March 1, Lee gained over 68 percent in the three regions that together have over 4.31 million voters.

In 1997, over 95 percent of the votes from the same Jeolla region went to liberal presidential candidate Kim Dae-jung (who won the election), the highest figure from a friendly region, which remains unbroken so far. Incumbent President Moon Jae-in also received over 89 percent of the votes from these regions as the Democratic Party of Korea presidential candidate in 2017.

Voters in the rest of the country ― Seoul and the provinces of Gyeonggi, Gangwon and Chungcheong ― have largely remained swing-voters so far. Gangwon and Gyeonggi, which border North Korea, have been particularly sensitive to the candidates' pledges regarding national security. Yoon, to attract voters in Gangwon, told people during his campaigning in the province that his relatives on his mother's side live in Gangneung there. On the opposing side, Lee referred to himself as "Chungcheong's son-in-law" while canvassing in the region because his father-in-law was born in Chungju city in North Chungcheong. It's a popular tactic among election contenders in Korea to link their family lineage to local regions they visit to woo residents for votes.

Against the odds

While getting votes in their friendly regions isn't so hard for Lee and Yoon, one of the election-winning clinchers depends on how many votes they can get from regions that are unfriendly.

"The PPP is now keen on whether Yoon will break the 15-percent barrier in the Jeolla provinces ― the figure considered a landmark from the conservative party's view," political analyst and Myongji University professor of politics Kim Hyung-joon told The Korea Times. "The most votes a conservative presidential candidate ever earned in the Jeolla region was just over 10 percent, and that went to Park Geun-hye." (Park received 13 percent of the votes in North Jeolla in the 2012 presidential election, together with over 7 percent in Gwangju and 10 percent in South Jeolla.)

But with minor opposition People's Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo having decided to join Yoon's election campaign on March 3, to support a united, single candidacy, the odds are looking less grim for the PPP. "If Ahn's supporters decide to shift to Yoon, Yoon might just be able to break that 15-percent barrier," Kim said.

How many votes Lee will get from Daegu and North Gyeongsang is another burning question ― especially when he was born in the region and people have a natural propensity to respond positively to those from the same hometown area. "Because Lee was born and raised in Andong city in North Gyeongsang, it will be interesting to watch how many voters in that city or the region will cast their votes for a fellow hometown person despite his identity as a democratic politician," said Kim.

Kim also picked whether Lee will get over 30-percent of the votes from Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang as another possible game-changer. "Moon got 37 percent of the votes from these regions in the 2017 presidential election, although he represented a democratic party. Will Lee, who has no strings attached to these regions whatsoever, hit that barrier?"

These region-specific odds, however, have gotten watered down in the recent past, as past elections show. It means that a major candidate can no longer be assured that his or her friendly regions will provide a substantial number of votes. It also means that increasingly, local citizens have not been voting necessarily only based on whether a certain candidate is from the same hometown or has a shared connection to a particular area. Rather, they have been making a stronger note of a candidate's political capabilities.

"This localism was rampant on some extreme levels in the past, particularly in Jeolla and Gyeongsang," Yoo Sung-jin, a professor of politics from Ewha Woman's University told The Korea Times. "It is still there now, but comparatively, it has faded over the course of time, including in those two regions."

Yoo said that Seoul and Gyeonggi are still divided over Lee and Yoon in many districts. "(With those swing regions) the general voting patterns in this election will remain the same as before, except that the level of concentration of votes from a certain region for a certain candidate will be less stark than before."