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3 in 4 Cheong Wa Dae Correspondents Forecast Lee to Win
By Kim Yon-se
Staff Reporter
Three out of every four journalists covering news from Cheong Wa Dae predicted that Lee Myung-bak of the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) would win the Dec. 19 presidential election. About half said that it would be difficult for a candidate to achieve a landside victory.
According to The Korea Times survey to mark the newspaper's 57th anniversary which falls on Thursday, 42 or 76.4 percent of 55 journalists said the main opposition party nominee would become the next president.
Of 72 reporters who cover the presidential office, seven declined to answer the survey and 10 were not contacted.
Only four of the respondents, or 7.3 percent, expected candidate Chung Dong-young of the United New Democratic Party (UNDP) to be elected as the next president in December.
Two picked Moon Kook-hyun, an independent candidate and former CEO of Yuhan-Kimberly, and one bet on Rhee In-je, the nominee of the Democratic Party (DP).
Answers of the remaining six respondents include ``unpredictable at the moment'' and ``nobody among the proposed candidates.''
When asked ``Who would you vote for if the election day is today,'' 22 or 40 percent of the respondents picked former Seoul Mayor Lee, 65, while 13 or 23.6 percent said they will vote for former Unification Minister Chung, 54.
While nobody predicted the winning of Kwon Young-ghil of the Democratic Labor Party (DLP), five respondents (9.1 percent) said they will vote for the progressive party candidate.
Six and two respondents expressed willingness to vote for Moon and Rhee, respectively.
The other replies accounted for 12.7 percent. Among them were ``nobody among the suggested candidates,'' ``undecided'' and ``Park Geun-hye who lost to Lee Myung-bak in the GNP's primary race.''
Of the respondents, 60 percent and 54.5 percent said they voted for Roh Moo-hyun and Kim Dae-jung in the 2002 and 1997 presidential election, respectively.
About 16.4 percent and 21.8 percent said they chose then GNP candidate Lee Hoi-chang in the 2002 and 1997 election, respectively. There are speculations that Lee Hoi-chang will make a third bid for presidency.
``I've never voted for the conservative GNP candidates whether in presidential or general elections,'' a respondent said on condition of anonymity. ``But now I'm willing to vote for the party.''
Another respondent said it is desirable for the country to entrust the administration to liberal and conservative parties by turns.
A respondent said, ``I think all of the candidates are not eligible for the presidency. The country needs a figure with charisma like North Korean leader Kim Jong-il or Chun Doo-hwan, former president.''
Three respondents said they voted for the DLP's Kwon in 2002 and two for the DP's Rhee in 1997. Most of the other answers ― 18.2 percent for the 2002 election and 20 percent for the 1997 poll ― were ``abstention.''
About 50.9 percent of the respondents said that it would be difficult for a candidate to achieve a landside victory, like the cases in 2002 and 1997.
The margin between the President-elect and the runner-up would be below 10 percentage points, said 28 respondents. In particular, three of the 28 said the gap would mark below 5 percentage points.
Seventeen or 30.9 percent said the gap would be 10-20 percentage points, whereas 10 respondents or 18.2 percent forecast 20-30 percentage points.
Nobody expected the gap to be more than 30 percentage points between the winner and the runner-up.
In addition, 36 respondents or 65.5 percent said the winner will garner 40-50 percent of the total eligible votes, and 11 predicted 30-40 percent.
Seven respondents said the winner's approval rating will surpass 50 percent, while only one said the rate will stay below 30 percent.
kys@koreatimes.co.kr
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