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| A telescope placed at Imjingak Observatory in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, offers a way for South Koreans with long-lost relatives in the North to view the North Korean side. / Korea Times file |
By Kim Ji-soo
The recent flurry of breakthroughs and meetings between South and North Korea, the United States and other concerned countries has invariably prompted the public's anticipation for peace and renewed exchanges on the Korean Peninsula.
President Moon Jae-in captured the sentiment last week during a meeting with his presidential aides when he said, "We now have a very precious chance to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, establish a permanent peace system and build a path of joint prosperity for South and North Korea."
It's a precipitous moment, and South Koreans remain hopeful but cautious. According to Gallup poll results announced last Friday, 53 percent of respondents said they believe North Korea had changed following the South Korean delegation's visit to Pyongyang and pledges to meet with the United States.
But the 30,000 plus North Korean defectors who have settled in South Korea are somewhat skeptical.
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| North Korean defector Jung Gwang-il speaks during a panel discussion on North Korean human rights abuses at United Nations headquarters in this Oct. 22, 2014 file photo. / Korea Times file |
Jung Gwang-il, who defected from the North and arrived in the South in 2004, does not really believe in the significance of the recent steps taken by the two Koreas. Jung, who leads the activist group No Chain for North Korea which aims to help liberate North Koreans by sending factual information via balloon or other methods to North Korea, was part of the delegation, along with fellow defector Ji Sung-ho who met with U.S. President Trump in February.
"I don't know if the United States-North Korea talks can take place. The inter-Korea summit will happen, but the former, I'm not sure," Jung said.
Similarly, Lee Ae-ran, the first North Korean female defector to receive a Ph.D. in South Korea at Ewha Womans University, sounded skeptical about the flurry of engagements involving the North and the South's stalwart ally. Lee, who defected in 1998, heads the Institute of Traditional North Korean Food and operates Neungna Bapsang, a restaurant in Jongno-gu, central Seoul.
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| Lee Ae-ran |
"I doubt whether Washington and Pyongyang will sit down for talks. Washington adheres to the complete, verifiable, irreversible (CVID) stance regarding North Korea's nuclear program, but will Pyongyang really go with the CVID?" Lee said.
Go Myong-hyun, senior researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said the North Korean defectors' skepticism is understandable.
"It's hard to expect a nation that has avowed to go nuclear suddenly to give it up with (the top leader's) word and, in fact, no country in the world has done so, so the skepticism is warranted," Go said.
He is skeptical about how much will be achieved at the third Korea summit or in U.S.-North Korea talks.
"From here is where it gets complicated. I am almost positive both talks will take place, but there will be two constraints to the U.S.-North Korea talks, the first being just how detailed an offer the North can make on the denuclearization part," Go said.
Lee said she doesn't understand how people believe the tension on the Korean Peninsula is solely because of the North's nuclear program. "The North has not given up its communist stance; let's remember the infiltration invasion by then-North Korean spy Kim Shin-jo and the bombing of the Korean Air plane in 1987. There was no nuclear program back then," she said.
"There is surely hope and expectation that the 70-year-old order that had prevailed in Northeast Asia has an opportunity to change," said Ahn Chan-il, professor emeritus at the Open Cyber University of Korea and head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies in Seoul, when asked about the steps taken by the countries concerned about the issues on the Korean Peninsula. "But whether the North's regime has the internal ability to sustain the vast changes it looks like it is about to embrace, the ability to lead its people through the changes may be the question."
Ahn, who defected in the late 1970s by crossing the DMZ after serving in the North Korean military, is the first North Korean defector to earn a Ph.D. in the South.
Asked whether he thinks the North's young leader Kim Jong-un is merely biding time to alleviate the fallout from the economic sanctions before he declares the North a nuclear nation, akin to the approach that his father Kim Jong-il took, Ahn said, "There is a certain element of that. However, we need to look at Kim Jong-un's gestures in terms of the global context, perhaps where the capability of the socialist regime to regenerate and sustain itself may well have weakened."
Ahn hopes to visit his hometown of Sinuiju, North Korea, should the developments lead to more inter-Korean exchanges. "I don't have family; it's been a long time since I've defected and they have been persecuted," he said. "But for the numerous recent North Korean defectors, any new progress can mean investments in the North and reuniting with their family members."
Professor Lee Geun of Seoul National University's Graduate School of International Relations said the burden of increasing personnel exchanges between the two Koreas rests on the Moon administration.
"The administration will have to deftly balance between protecting the regime from international sanctions and improving inter-Korean relations," Lee said.
