By Robert Kelly
A disturbing generation gap is opening.
President Park Geun-hye, who came to power largely due to the support of older Koreans, is a marker of this division.
Korea's extremely low birthrate has left a hole of "missing voters" at the bottom of its demography.
Ironically this population-skew toward the aged helped power Park's win, but it should clearly be a red-flag. With the old generation alone, it's not possible to return Korea to its "miracle" growth days as Park promised, if the "gerontocratization" of Korea continues apace.
A rapidly aging population portends spiraling health and retirement costs, a slowdown in economic growth due to a contracting working-age population, worsening generational cleavages, and a sharp Japan-style trade-off between slow-motion decline or controversial mass-immigration.
Park is an unlikely figure to confront this brewing demographic/generational implosion. Indeed, her supporters see this in her nostalgia for Korea's economic glory-days, and the left strongly suspects she ran for president to validate the past rather than lead the future.
Park should prove that she has an ace in the hole.
If she does not challenge the social forces that have led Korea into this demographic/generational impasse _ the insulation of the chaebol from accountability to regulators and shareholders, Confucian patriarchy, Seoul-centricity, and intense social elitism _ she will be the last, rear-guard defender of the old corporate-elitist Korea, and not the first leader of a new, open liberalized Korea.
I can think of few easier ways to reduce stress on Korean families than an improvement in purchasing power that would flow from a genuine market opening. Former President Lee Myung-bak started the ball rolling with two major FTAs.
But prices in Korea for consumer goods _ most disappointingly for those goods where Korea is competitive, such as TVs or cars _ are still far too high. I regularly suggest that my students look at the Walmart website to price-compare with Korea, and they are astonished. There is still a long way for Korean consumer prices to tumble _ if she is willing to push serious market deregulation, including a tougher line on chaebol oligopolization to incentive competition.
These suggestions would be disruptive, and few anticipate them from the conservative coalition her party represents. They will require her to challenge vested interests, most obviously the chaebol who benefit handsomely from the status quo of preferential access to decision-makers and the national budget.
Park's campaign promise to realize economic democratization and her inaugural pledge to make Korea happy are not impossible but it almost certainly means the liberalization of Korean politics, economics, and social life _ re-incentivizing women and young people especially, that "success" need not only mean expensive, punishing schooling for years in Seoul followed by a grueling, stressful corporate job at chaebol while drowning in personal debt. There must be a better, more humane way.
The status quo may have served Korea well thirty years ago, but today it is an encumbrance. Korea is not "happy." Divorce, suicide, alcoholism, depression are at record levels. Without change, Korea will eventually go as Japan is going now _ social immobilization, gradual but obvious decline, fading geopolitical clout. The time to act is now.
Robert Kelly is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy of Pusan National University. His website is: AsianSecurityBlog.wordpress.com
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Robert Kelly is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy of Pusan National University. His website is: AsianSecurityBlog.wordpress.com
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President Park Geun-hye, who came to power largely due to the support of older Koreans, is a marker of this division.
Korea's extremely low birthrate has left a hole of "missing voters" at the bottom of its demography.
Ironically this population-skew toward the aged helped power Park's win, but it should clearly be a red-flag. With the old generation alone, it's not possible to return Korea to its "miracle" growth days as Park promised, if the "gerontocratization" of Korea continues apace.
A rapidly aging population portends spiraling health and retirement costs, a slowdown in economic growth due to a contracting working-age population, worsening generational cleavages, and a sharp Japan-style trade-off between slow-motion decline or controversial mass-immigration.
Park is an unlikely figure to confront this brewing demographic/generational implosion. Indeed, her supporters see this in her nostalgia for Korea's economic glory-days, and the left strongly suspects she ran for president to validate the past rather than lead the future.
Park should prove that she has an ace in the hole.
If she does not challenge the social forces that have led Korea into this demographic/generational impasse _ the insulation of the chaebol from accountability to regulators and shareholders, Confucian patriarchy, Seoul-centricity, and intense social elitism _ she will be the last, rear-guard defender of the old corporate-elitist Korea, and not the first leader of a new, open liberalized Korea.
I can think of few easier ways to reduce stress on Korean families than an improvement in purchasing power that would flow from a genuine market opening. Former President Lee Myung-bak started the ball rolling with two major FTAs.
But prices in Korea for consumer goods _ most disappointingly for those goods where Korea is competitive, such as TVs or cars _ are still far too high. I regularly suggest that my students look at the Walmart website to price-compare with Korea, and they are astonished. There is still a long way for Korean consumer prices to tumble _ if she is willing to push serious market deregulation, including a tougher line on chaebol oligopolization to incentive competition.
These suggestions would be disruptive, and few anticipate them from the conservative coalition her party represents. They will require her to challenge vested interests, most obviously the chaebol who benefit handsomely from the status quo of preferential access to decision-makers and the national budget.
Park's campaign promise to realize economic democratization and her inaugural pledge to make Korea happy are not impossible but it almost certainly means the liberalization of Korean politics, economics, and social life _ re-incentivizing women and young people especially, that "success" need not only mean expensive, punishing schooling for years in Seoul followed by a grueling, stressful corporate job at chaebol while drowning in personal debt. There must be a better, more humane way.
The status quo may have served Korea well thirty years ago, but today it is an encumbrance. Korea is not "happy." Divorce, suicide, alcoholism, depression are at record levels. Without change, Korea will eventually go as Japan is going now _ social immobilization, gradual but obvious decline, fading geopolitical clout. The time to act is now.
Robert Kelly is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy of Pusan National University. His website is: AsianSecurityBlog.wordpress.com
Robert Kelly is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy of Pusan National University. His website is: AsianSecurityBlog.wordpress.com
