![[PAP20191209098801848] People watch a TV screen showing a file image of a ground test of North Korea's rocket engine during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Monday. Yonhap](http://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/newsV2/images/201912/54636edb33024492887724303de0e5b0.jpg/dims/resize/740/optimize) |
| [PAP20191209098801848] People watch a TV screen showing a file image of a ground test of North Korea's rocket engine during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Monday. Yonhap |
By Do Je-hae
North Korea's "very important test" at a missile and rocket launch site in Dongchang-ri Sunday (KST) has triggered fears that the Kim Jong-un regime is getting ready to test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the coming weeks.
President Donald Trump has promoted his previous summits with Kim as some of his most visible diplomatic achievements, but a possible restart of North Korea's long-range missile program has cast serious doubts about the actual effectiveness of the 2018 agreement in Singapore on the North's denuclearization. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the U.S. would be "at war" with North Korea if he had not been elected.
A new ICBM test would be a real blow to the U.S. leader's diplomatic capacity and global leadership credentials, according to political analysts here.
The U.S. president is already facing criticism for his unilateralism and protectionism. He has also faced harsh headlines within and outside the U.S. for policies that have strained relations with allies, such as his demand for a whopping 400 percent increase in South Korea's annual share of the cost for stationing U.S. troops in Korea to $5 billion.
"Trump has insulted international institutions and abandoned allies from Syria to the Korean Peninsula," Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Center of Liberal Strategies said in a recent column. As Trump increasingly loses the trust of the international community as a global leader, it is feared that a possible collapse of the denuclearization talks with North Korea will significantly hamper his diplomatic legacy ahead of the U.S. presidential campaign.
At this point, Trump is more desperate to keep the talks going than Kim. In Pyongyang, Kim is "beyond reproach" and can rule for life. But Trump needs to maintain at least the "status quo" with North Korea, according to analysts, to take advantage of his "diplomatic achievements" on the upcoming campaign trail.
Trump's subdued message after North Korea's unspecified "important test" reflected that he does not want to end the "top-down relationship" he has built with the North Korean leader.
"Kim Jong Un is too smart and has far too much to lose, everything actually, if he acts in a hostile way. He signed a strong Denuclearization Agreement with me in Singapore. He does not want to void his special relationship with the President of the United States or interfere with the U.S. Presidential Election in November," Trump Tweeted following Pyongyang's announcement of the test.
For Trump, keeping the status quo would be the best policy at this point because any future deal with North Korea will be criticized within the U.S. as a "bad deal," according to Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies of Kyungnam University.
"After North Korea gave up Yongbyon, the U.S. still did not give up on sanctions. If the U.S. were to make concessions in any future deal, it will be criticized domestically. Trump considers it best to maintain the current state of tension without any additional agreement. This is the most conducive to keeping up Trump's case that North Korea has not tested missiles or launched an ICBM," the professor told The Korea Times, Monday. "If North Korea launches an ICBM, it could affect the U.S. election. But it will not be easy for North Korea to do this, although it has been testing engines and so forth."
Another analyst explained that Kim could be aiming to pressure Trump ahead of the U.S. election, but was negative about an ICBM test in the near future.
"North Korea can be seen as pushing for the easing of sanctions ahead of the U.S. presidential election. But there is not much possibility of an ICBM test. If this happens, not only will U.S.-North Korea relations suffer, but also its relations with China will be damaged," said Cho Seong-ryoul, a senior adviser at the Institute for National Security Strategy.
International experts have continued to underline the shortcomings of the U.S.-North Korea negotiations through which Pyongyang is feared to be ultimately seeking to gain U.S. recognition as a nuclear power.
"Let's be clear: the Strong Denuclearization Agreement was far more vague than past NK statements, and genuine denuclearization seems to never have been on the table. Keep in mind that NK has tested 20 missiles since the Singapore summit," said Abraham M. Denmark, director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, in a Tweet.
