What's next for Korea-Japan ties after Abe?

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announces his resignation at his official residence in Tokyo Friday. AFP-Yonhap

Extended disputes expected to make strained ties difficult for next PM to untangle

By Yi Whan-woo

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation, Friday, is fueling speculation over whether Korea and Japan can restore their relations which had been strained during Abe's eight years in office.

Cheong Wa Dae said Friday it "will cooperate with the next prime minister to advance bilateral friendship."

Some analysts, however, speculated, Sunday, it will be trickier than before as the Seoul-Tokyo feud has spread from imperial history issues to trade and security and that animosity between their people runs much deeper.

"Whoever becomes the prime minister will struggle to untangle ties," said Park Wong-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University.

The professor argued Abe capitalized on Korea-bashing in a "timely" manner for various reasons, such as getting out of political trouble and pandering to voters.

"The tactics have undermined the image of Korea in Japan. And putting everything back on track will take time," Park said.

Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, voiced a similar view. "Abe's Cabinet was marked by historical revisionism and a push for heavier armament that evoked bitter memories of Japan's past militarism," he said.

The Seoul-Tokyo row was mainly over wartime sex slavery, regarding which the two neighbors reached a deal in 2015 that was revoked following protest from several of the surviving victims and civic activists.

The row intensified last year when Japan imposed export restrictions in retaliation for the 2018 Korean Supreme Court ruling that ordered Japanese firms to compensate surviving Korean victims of wartime forced labor. Tokyo also removed Korea from its list of preferential partners.

In response, Seoul once considered terminating an intelligence-sharing pact, GSOMIA, that Washington sees as critical for a three-way alliance against Beijing and Pyongyang.

While Seoul suspended the plan, it hinted this year that the pact, which is renewed every November, can be terminated depending on diplomatic circumstances.

"This apparently makes a need for a dovish prime minster," Shin said.

Among the touted candidates are Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, Defense Minister Taro Kono, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida who is now policy chief of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Aso, Suga and Kono are considered hardliners while Ishiba and Kishida are seen as moderates.

"The Korean government will have room for diplomatic maneuvering if Ishiba or Kishida become Japan's next leader," said Lee Won-deok, a professor of Japanese Studies at Kookmin University.

Yang Ki-ho, a professor at Sungkonghoe University, speculated Abe's successor, whoever that may be, will have difficulty in "making an abrupt policy shift" because the power dynamics of the LDP are still at work.

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