By Kang Hyun-kyung
Analysts said Monday that North Korea would put stability first at a time of crisis amid state mourning over the death of its “Dear Leader.”
Thus, they said, the possibility of a North Korean invasion of the South is seen as low, but it could launch artillery attacks, similar to the one on Yeonpyeong Island in November last year, in order to ensure public order and prevent instability.
Park Young-ho, a senior fellow of the Korea Institute for National Unification, predicted that the North would be unlikely to attempt to wage a war against the South.
“They would know that they have nothing to win by risking such an attack because of the South Korea-U.S. security alliance. There is the China factor, too. Therefore waging a war appears not to be an option at the moment,” he said.
Park forecast there will be a power struggle in the ruling elite in the North, saying the leadership succession has not been completed yet.
However, a North Korean defector, who was a high-ranking military official, said loyalists in the military will try to maintain unity at a time of crisis and therefore a power struggle and ensuing chaos or turbulence is unlikely.
Kim Seong-min, a representative of Free North Korean Radio dedicated to broadcast anti-North Korean propaganda to residents there, said the leadership succession was nearly completed, and therefore a revolt or defiance by military hardliners is a least possible scenario.
“The North will set up a power transition team as soon as possible and all high-ranking military officials will try to maintain unity and stability in society,” he said.
“The military will come to the fore as Kim died if there is a power vacuum. Or another possibility is that Kim Jong-il’s third son Jung-un, who was tapped as its next leader, will take power with Jang Sung-tae acting as a caretaker.”
An Chan-il, a political scientist, suggested two scenarios in the post-Kim Jong-il North Korea.
If Kim Jong-il died of a heart attack as North Korea’s state-controlled media announced, An said there will be no instability as key post holders will “follow the manual.”
“The problem will arise if the Dear Leader was killed by someone, such as military hardliners, for example. If Kim was killed as a result of a power struggle, this means that an Arab Spring-like change is possible and chaos and turbulence will be inevitable for the time being,” he said.
In a prepared statement regarding the death of Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s Central News Agency urged the nation to be unified in getting over the loss of what it called the great leader and hardships facing them.
