Moon's inter-Korean initiative put to test

President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un / Korea Times file

By Kang Seung-woo

President Moon Jae-in's proposal to deal with inter-Korean projects separately from the North's denuclearization negotiations with the United States seems to be losing steam, with Pyongyang still shunning Seoul while seeking dialog with Washington.

According to the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Sunday, leader Kim Jong-un presided over an undated key defense meeting of the ruling Workers' Party and laid out "new policies for further increasing" its nuclear war deterrence and putting its "strategic armed forces on high alert operation." However, there was no reference to Seoul's suggestion for cooperation on inter-Korean quarantine measures amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Kim's remarks are seen as part of his efforts to get the U.S. to return to their nuclear disarmament dialogue, hinting that the North may try to affect the U.S. presidential election in November as the matter has been put on the back burner by President Donald Trump who is seeking reelection. More importantly, it is also giving the cold shoulder to President Moon's proposal for independent inter-Korean cooperation.

"President Moon's drive may lose momentum as the meeting showed that the North only intends to talk with the U.S. and this stance may continue until November," said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies.

"In that respect, the South Korean government would find it difficult to get a window of opportunity for inter-Korean talks."

Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Sejong Institute's Center for North Korean Studies, echoed An's view.

"Given that Kim promoted Ri Pyong-chol, who is in charge of building nuclear weapons and missiles, to vice chairman of the ruling party's Central Military Commission, he made it clear that his regime will be committed to strengthening its nuclear war deterrence and boosting its military capabilities," Cheong said.

"In that respect, there is little chance of inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation," Cheong added.

Since the Hanoi summit between Kim and Trump in February 2019 failed to produce an agreement, nuclear diplomacy between the two countries has seen little progress. As a result, inter-Korean ties that proceeded in lockstep with progress in the North-U.S. relations have remained at a standstill.

Frustrated by unproductive results from the North Korea-U.S. denuclearization talks, earlier this month Moon proposed that the two Koreas do what they can do regardless of the deadlock. According to his administration, inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation could take place in the areas of healthcare, railways and tourism.

However, the North Korean regime has yet to respond to the proposal, raising speculation that getting inter-Korean relations back on track have been subordinated to normalization of ties between the North and the U.S.

"Since last year, the North has prioritized talks with the U.S. to ease or lift sanctions as it knows there are few things that the South can do independently with regard to these," said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.

"Unless the South Korean government takes drastic moves such as resuming tours to Mount Geumgang or reopening the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, the North will not have any interest in any proposal from the South."

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