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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un meets with U.S. President Donald Trump at the border village of Panmunjeom in the Demilitarized Zone, June. 30, 2019. / Korea Times file |
Nuclear talks between NK, US have uncertain future
By Kang Seung-woo
The indefinite suspension of the annual joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States is expected to have an incidental effect of de-escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, diplomatic experts said Friday.
However, it remains to be seen if the decision will help get the stalled nuclear talks between North Korea and the U.S. back on track, they added.
On Thursday, the allies announced that they would postpone their joint exercises indefinitely amid the surge in COVID-19 cases across the peninsula. They had initially planned to hold them in March.
While negotiations between the two countries have stalled for more than a year since the collapse of the Hanoi summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in February 2019, this year's drills had been regarded as a litmus test to see whether the peninsula would return to tension.
Angered by the joint exercises, the North Korean regime has taken low-level provocative action, including launching short-range missiles, since mid-last year. In addition, Kim's warning of a new strategic weapon in his New Year address heightened tensions here.
"If South Korea and the U.S. had stuck to their plan to go ahead with the joint drills, North Korea would have responded with military action, which could have stoked tensions here," said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute.
"Thanks to the suspension, the North is not likely to show off its military prowess."
Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University, echoed Cheong's view.
"Given that the North will not stage corresponding exercises, the decision to suspend the joint drills will help de-escalate tensions," Park said, adding the North would be able to focus on fighting the coronavirus.
The North Korean leader also said in the New Year speech that how much his country will bolster its nuclear deterrent would depend on the U.S.' attitude, meaning the joint drills would have led to the North's military provocations.
However, diplomatic pundits said the exercise postponement would not revive the nuclear talks between Pyongyang and Washington overnight.
"The decision to postpone the joint exercises was based on a public health problem without accepting the North's demand for the end of them. In that respect, it is not easy to mend fences between the North and the U.S. and quickly resume the nuclear talks," Park said.
The Kim regime has repeatedly strongly denounced the military exercises in the South, calling them a rehearsal for an invasion of the North.
Cheong said the North is committed to containing the coronavirus, so it is not in a favorable situation to come forward for negotiations with the U.S. So far, the North claims it has no cases of coronavirus.
"As the U.S. government has fewer things palatable to the North to bring it back to negotiations, the North Korean regime will not easily accept the U.S.' call for denuclearization talks," Cheong said.
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