Trilateral framework at risk

Professor Gi-wook Shin of Stanford University Courtesy of Gi-wook Shin

This is the fifth in a series of interviews with political experts and experienced analysts assessing the impact of the ongoing South Korea-Japan trade row after Tokyo removed Seoul from its list of trusted trading partners receiving preferential treatment in exports. ― ED.

By Do Je-hae

South Korea's decision to end its military agreement with Japan will damage the prospect of continued close security ties among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo because the pact has been a symbol of smooth trilateral military cooperation between them and regarded as a key deterrent against North Korea.

"It is a big mistake," Shin Gi-wook, a Korea studies expert at Stanford University, said in a recent interview adding Seoul's withdrawal from the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) puts the "trilateral security framework at risk."

"The Japan-South Korea relationship may not have hit rock bottom, but it could further deteriorate in the coming months," Shin said. "This is all the more important with the continuing threat of North Korean WMD and the escalating conflict between the U.S. and China in the region. I am concerned that South Korea could be further isolated in the Northeast Asian region _ the Moon administration should see the big picture," the professor said.

Seoul, Washington and Tokyo often need to join forces to handle North Korea's military threats. Before the GSOMIA was signed, the United States had to talk with Japan when it shared highly-confidential and sensitive military information with South Korea, Cheong Wa Dae officials admitted. But because of the pact, the three countries have been able to share key intelligence.

The scholar added Japan's decision to remove South Korea from its list of most trusted trading partners had a "declaratory meaning."

"It [withdrawing from the GSOMIA] may serve as an opportunity for Japan and the United States to draw closer to each other in the absence of South Korea and will raise the question of whether Seoul will/should take part in the United States and Japan's vision for the Indo-Pacific," Shin said.

While U.S. President Donald Trump has had famously tempestuous relationships with other world leaders including President Moon Jae-in, Trump has formed a rather strong bond with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with the Japanese leader viewed as having the closest ties with President Trump.

Shin said the dissolution of the GSOMIA means it will be hard to "de-escalate" in a mutually-agreeable way.

Cheong Wa Dae has continued to stress that there will be no cracks in the bilateral alliance with the United States and also trilateral security cooperation following its announcement to end the GSOMIA. But such an optimistic view is not shared by the U.S. administration, which has voiced its disappointment with the decision several times.

In particular, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea raised concerns about the Korea-U.S. alliance following the GSOMIA decision. From the beginning of the Moon administration, there were concerns in Washington that the value of the Washington-Seoul military alliance might be undermined by the presidential office and that the Moon government might move closer to China.

Such suspicions have gained more grounds as Washington wonders what was the intention and purpose of South Korea's withdrawal from the GSOMIA. The director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) said that ending the GSOMIA will not result in much change from the U.S. regarding the Korea-Japan conflict.

"The withdrawal will not trigger the U.S. to become an active mediator between Japan and South Korea. In particular, Trump remains indifferent while complaining about the potential harm the situation will bring to U.S."

Regarding the ongoing Seoul-Tokyo friction, the trade row is rooted in a longstanding conflict over the two countries' shared history, making it all the more difficult for the two countries to find a compromise. Professor Shin suggested that the adoption of a "forward-looking declaration" resembling the "1998 Kim-Obuchi Declaration" for a much-needed diplomatic breakthrough, urging President Moon to choose "realistic pragmatism" over "nationalistic populism."

"A 'Moon-Abe declaration' that inherits the spirit of the Kim-Obuchi declaration would be the last resort to help heal the wounds of both sides created by the current dispute," Shin said. The professor added that this year's "crisis" happening between the neighboring countries can be turned into an opportunity for a renewed cooperative relationship between the two countries through such a forward-looking initiative and the determination of the Moon-Abe administrations.

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