Korea's population likely to peak in 2028

Traffic speeds through an intersection at night in southern Seoul. GETTYIMAGESBANK

South Korea's statistics agency forecast Thursday that the country's population is likely to peak at 51.94 million in 2028 before declining to 39.29 million in 2067.

The demographic outlook came as deaths are set to outnumber births in Asia's fourth-largest economy beginning in 2019.

South Korea plans to set up a government task force next month to come up with comprehensive measures to tackle demographic challenges.

The number of newborns in South Korea came to 326,900 in 2018, a sharp decline from a high of 1 million in 1970, according to the data compiled by Statistics Korea.

In 2018, South Korea's total fertility rate ― the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime ― hit a record low of 0.98, much lower than the replacement level of 2.1 that would keep South Korea's population stable at 51 million.

The statistics office said South Korea's total fertility rate could remain below 1 until 2024 before edging back to above 1 in 2025 and reaching 1.27 in 2040.

The agency forecast that the number of newborns in South Korea could hover around 290,000 in 2021 before falling to around 210,000 in 2067.

It also said total deaths could reach more than 400,000 in 2028 before rising to 740,000 in 2067, compared with 290,000 in 2017.

The decline in childbirths is blamed on a sharp fall in the number of marriages.

Some young South Koreans are opting to distance themselves from life's three major milestones ― dating, marriage and having children ― because they cannot find decent jobs amid a prolonged economic slowdown.

The decline in childbirths could reduce the working-age population ― those aged between 15 and 65 ― while increasing the ratio of older people, a situation that could place heavy financial burden on young people.

The working-age population is expected to come to 33.95 million in 2030 before falling to 17.84 million in 2067, compared with 37.57 million in 2017.

Meanwhile, the number of South Koreans aged 65 years or older could account for 20 percent in 2025 and surpass 40 percent in 2051, compared with 13.8 percent of the country's population in 2017.

A country is defined as an aged society when more than 14 percent of its people are 65 or older.

The statistics agency said every 100 working-age people should support 37 people ― who are aged younger than 15 or aged over 65 ― in 2017. The ratio is the lowest among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of 36 mostly rich nations.

But South Korea's ratio is forecast to jump to 117.8 in 2065, the highest among the OECD member states. It means that every 100 working-age people will have to support 117.8 people. (Yonhap)

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