By John Burton
Speculation is growing that North Korea might emulate Vietnam's economic development model after its capital Hanoi was chosen as the location of the second Washington-Pyongyang summit.
One of the rare points of agreement when it comes to North Korea is that Pyongyang appears serious in its intention to modernize its economy. The selection of Vietnam as the site of the upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un reinforces this message.
Last year, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Vietnam just after a trip to Pyongyang and noted that Vietnam's market reforms, known as "doi moi," served as a model of prosperity for North Korea.
Kim is believed to be interested in studying authoritarian capitalist countries, including China, Vietnam and Singapore, the site of the last Trump-Kim summit, for lessons on how to revive the economy while keeping political control.
China, of course, has long urged North Korea to undertake economic reforms, including creating Shenzhen-style special economic zones. Kim has visited China four times within the past year.
What has been said at those meetings with the Chinese leadership has not been disclosed, but they likely involved discussions on how Beijing could help support Pyongyang's economic modernization efforts in return for denuclearization.
The main sticking point is how this could be achieved. North Korea is unlikely to begin the denuclearization process until the U.S. agrees to ease international economic sanctions. But Washington hawks, including National Security Adviser John Bolton, want the reverse: denuclearization before easing sanctions.
Trump, who appears desperate for a foreign policy win, may be willing to compromise by a phased lifting of sanctions in return for North Korea's destruction of some nuclear and missile weapons facilities. China could play a useful mediator role in this process.
The possibility that North Korea might soon embrace economic reforms would help South Korea's economy as the two Koreas become integrated through transportation links and investments.
North Korea's neighbors would strongly support Pyongyang's economic reforms. They worry that North Korea's continued economic weakness could eventually lead to a collapse of the state, sending a flood of refugees across borders and forcing Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo to pay billions of dollars in reconstruction funds.
The possibility that North Korea might soon embrace economic reforms would help South Korea's economy as the two Koreas become integrated through transportation links and investments.
China, South Korea, Japan and Russia would welcome North Korea's economic liberalization since it would allow the country to be included in regional development schemes such as the China's Belt and Road program and a Eurasian railway corridor.
So can North Korea follow in the footsteps of Vietnam's market reforms? There are several similarities between the two countries. Both have well-educated and hardworking populations, although Vietnam has almost four times the number of people as North Korea. Both countries also have a strong sense of nationalism that has allowed them to maintain considerable geopolitical independence.
Probably the most appealing aspect of Vietnam to Kim is that Hanoi has successfully navigated a massive economic transformation and opening to the global economy while maintaining stable, one-party rule.
Vietnam's communist rulers have been able to hold onto power because the introduction of economic reforms has been gradual, an approach that also seems to be favored by Kim. It has taken Vietnam more than 30 years to achieve its economic success.
Kim might also view the dramatic improvement in U.S.-Vietnamese relations after the two nations fought a bitter war as another template to follow in his policy toward Washington. North Korea will need U.S. support if it hopes to receive funding from the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank,and join the World Trade Organization.
What could bring Washington and Pyongyang closer together is a shared interest in curbing the rise of China even as the two countries maintain economic trade and investments with Beijing. North Korea can also emulate Vietnam by forging ties with Japan and India.
The upcoming Trump-Kim summit will thus not only be a key test of North Korea's willingness to denuclearize but its eagerness to pursue economic reforms. Pyongyang's agreement to meet in Vietnam is a hopeful sign.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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One of the rare points of agreement when it comes to North Korea is that Pyongyang appears serious in its intention to modernize its economy. The selection of Vietnam as the site of the upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un reinforces this message.
Last year, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Vietnam just after a trip to Pyongyang and noted that Vietnam's market reforms, known as "doi moi," served as a model of prosperity for North Korea.
Kim is believed to be interested in studying authoritarian capitalist countries, including China, Vietnam and Singapore, the site of the last Trump-Kim summit, for lessons on how to revive the economy while keeping political control.
China, of course, has long urged North Korea to undertake economic reforms, including creating Shenzhen-style special economic zones. Kim has visited China four times within the past year.
What has been said at those meetings with the Chinese leadership has not been disclosed, but they likely involved discussions on how Beijing could help support Pyongyang's economic modernization efforts in return for denuclearization.
The main sticking point is how this could be achieved. North Korea is unlikely to begin the denuclearization process until the U.S. agrees to ease international economic sanctions. But Washington hawks, including National Security Adviser John Bolton, want the reverse: denuclearization before easing sanctions.
Trump, who appears desperate for a foreign policy win, may be willing to compromise by a phased lifting of sanctions in return for North Korea's destruction of some nuclear and missile weapons facilities. China could play a useful mediator role in this process.
The possibility that North Korea might soon embrace economic reforms would help South Korea's economy as the two Koreas become integrated through transportation links and investments.
North Korea's neighbors would strongly support Pyongyang's economic reforms. They worry that North Korea's continued economic weakness could eventually lead to a collapse of the state, sending a flood of refugees across borders and forcing Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo to pay billions of dollars in reconstruction funds.
The possibility that North Korea might soon embrace economic reforms would help South Korea's economy as the two Koreas become integrated through transportation links and investments.
China, South Korea, Japan and Russia would welcome North Korea's economic liberalization since it would allow the country to be included in regional development schemes such as the China's Belt and Road program and a Eurasian railway corridor.
So can North Korea follow in the footsteps of Vietnam's market reforms? There are several similarities between the two countries. Both have well-educated and hardworking populations, although Vietnam has almost four times the number of people as North Korea. Both countries also have a strong sense of nationalism that has allowed them to maintain considerable geopolitical independence.
Probably the most appealing aspect of Vietnam to Kim is that Hanoi has successfully navigated a massive economic transformation and opening to the global economy while maintaining stable, one-party rule.
Vietnam's communist rulers have been able to hold onto power because the introduction of economic reforms has been gradual, an approach that also seems to be favored by Kim. It has taken Vietnam more than 30 years to achieve its economic success.
Kim might also view the dramatic improvement in U.S.-Vietnamese relations after the two nations fought a bitter war as another template to follow in his policy toward Washington. North Korea will need U.S. support if it hopes to receive funding from the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank,and join the World Trade Organization.
What could bring Washington and Pyongyang closer together is a shared interest in curbing the rise of China even as the two countries maintain economic trade and investments with Beijing. North Korea can also emulate Vietnam by forging ties with Japan and India.
The upcoming Trump-Kim summit will thus not only be a key test of North Korea's willingness to denuclearize but its eagerness to pursue economic reforms. Pyongyang's agreement to meet in Vietnam is a hopeful sign.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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