By Kim Bo-eun
Denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S., which appear to be stalled, may affect scheduled inter-Korean events, analysts said Monday.
Working-level talks between U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun and the North's Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui have not yet begun. Instead, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he will be meeting his North Korean counterpart for senior-level talks soon.
In addition, the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump is seen as likely to be held next year.
An earlier speculated blueprint of events was that Pyongyang and Washington could reach a big deal on initial denuclearization steps and corresponding measures, namely reaching a deal to end the 1950-53 Korean War this month, formally declaring the war over in November, and Seoul hosting the North Korean leader in December.
It has been President Moon Jae-in's plan for the war to be declared over within the year, as stated in the Panmunjeom Declaration reached between himself and Kim at their first summit in April.
However, a lack of progress in the denuclearization talks is casting a shadow over such prospects.
"It appears the U.S. and North Korea are failing to narrow their differences on the latter's reporting of its nuclear program," said Shin Beom-cheol, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. "This is why the working-level talks are failing to make progress and it is unlikely the second summit between Pyongyang and Washington will be held in the immediate future."
With regards to these concerns, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom said "We hope for the second summit between North Korea and the U.S. to be held without a setback. We are also hoping for Chairman Kim Jong-un's visit to Seoul to take place as planned."
Moon announced at his third summit with the North Korean leader in Pyongyang last month that Kim would be visiting Seoul within the year.
"The North Korean leader may visit as scheduled, backed by Cheong Wa Dae's stance that furthering inter-Korean relations helps bring progress in the denuclearization process, but this could create a risk of deteriorating relations between Seoul and Washington," Shin said.
A rift already appears to exist between South Korea and the U.S. in advancing inter-Korean projects amid slow progress in the denuclearization process. The South is planning to hold a groundbreaking ceremony to connect railways with the North in November or December; inter-Korean talks took place Monday to provide support in restoring forests in the North; and a process is underway to reduce hostilities and promote peace on the inter-Korean border.
Professor Koh Yu-hwan at Dongguk University said inter-Korean affairs that do not go against sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council will likely take place as planned.
"Of course, Kim Jong-un's visit to Seoul would take place in much better circumstances if there was some progress in denuclearization and a declaration ending the war was made," he said.
With regards to this matter, the Cheong Wa Dae spokesman said "It is our belief that if the end of war declaration is made before Chairman Kim's trip, his visit will be much more meaningful, and the Koreas will be able to have a deep dialogue and produce agreements accordingly."
Denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S., which appear to be stalled, may affect scheduled inter-Korean events, analysts said Monday.
Working-level talks between U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun and the North's Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui have not yet begun. Instead, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he will be meeting his North Korean counterpart for senior-level talks soon.
In addition, the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump is seen as likely to be held next year.
An earlier speculated blueprint of events was that Pyongyang and Washington could reach a big deal on initial denuclearization steps and corresponding measures, namely reaching a deal to end the 1950-53 Korean War this month, formally declaring the war over in November, and Seoul hosting the North Korean leader in December.
It has been President Moon Jae-in's plan for the war to be declared over within the year, as stated in the Panmunjeom Declaration reached between himself and Kim at their first summit in April.
However, a lack of progress in the denuclearization talks is casting a shadow over such prospects.
"It appears the U.S. and North Korea are failing to narrow their differences on the latter's reporting of its nuclear program," said Shin Beom-cheol, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. "This is why the working-level talks are failing to make progress and it is unlikely the second summit between Pyongyang and Washington will be held in the immediate future."
With regards to these concerns, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom said "We hope for the second summit between North Korea and the U.S. to be held without a setback. We are also hoping for Chairman Kim Jong-un's visit to Seoul to take place as planned."
Moon announced at his third summit with the North Korean leader in Pyongyang last month that Kim would be visiting Seoul within the year.
"The North Korean leader may visit as scheduled, backed by Cheong Wa Dae's stance that furthering inter-Korean relations helps bring progress in the denuclearization process, but this could create a risk of deteriorating relations between Seoul and Washington," Shin said.
A rift already appears to exist between South Korea and the U.S. in advancing inter-Korean projects amid slow progress in the denuclearization process. The South is planning to hold a groundbreaking ceremony to connect railways with the North in November or December; inter-Korean talks took place Monday to provide support in restoring forests in the North; and a process is underway to reduce hostilities and promote peace on the inter-Korean border.
Professor Koh Yu-hwan at Dongguk University said inter-Korean affairs that do not go against sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council will likely take place as planned.
"Of course, Kim Jong-un's visit to Seoul would take place in much better circumstances if there was some progress in denuclearization and a declaration ending the war was made," he said.
With regards to this matter, the Cheong Wa Dae spokesman said "It is our belief that if the end of war declaration is made before Chairman Kim's trip, his visit will be much more meaningful, and the Koreas will be able to have a deep dialogue and produce agreements accordingly."
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