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By Kim Bo-eun
Analysts are cautiously forecasting that the upcoming Pyongyang-Washington summit could produce a big deal on denuclearization, after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo returned from Pyongyang with three Americans detained in North Korea and both of the nations showed satisfaction over the current process toward the summit.
Pompeo brought back three U.S. prisoners, Thursday, who North Korea released a day earlier. This was a humanitarian issue Washington had consistently called for Pyongyang to resolve, and their release ahead of the summit is seen as an obstacle having been removed, raising prospects for real progress to be made on denuclearization.
In addition, it seems Pompeo and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un came to terms over the denuclearization process, based on Pyongyang and Washington's satisfactory reactions to the ongoing talks toward the summit.
"It appears North Korea and the U.S. have reached a certain level of agreement, considering the North's state media making an official announcement of the Pyongyang-Washington summit and Pompeo's visit to Pyongyang," said Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Kyungnam University.
The Korean Central News Agency reported Kim and Pompeo "reached a satisfactory deal" with regards to a new proposal made by President Donald Trump.
Trump, announcing that the summit will be held on June 12 in Singapore, also referred to it as a "highly anticipated meeting," and declared "we will both try to make a very special moment for world peace."
If speculation that the countries have ironed out a framework for denuclearization is true, this could greatly facilitate the Kim-Trump summit, according to the analysts.
The U.S. has maintained that North Korea's nuclear program needs complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement (CVID), with the White House referring to this as Trump's "top priority in talks with Kim" in a statement Friday. Analysts said North Korea appears to have agreed to this.
"Kim knows exactly what the U.S. wants. He appears to have already made up his mind on CVID of the regime's nuclear program in his first meeting with Pompeo in late March, and agreed to it during Pompeo's second visit," Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean studies, said.
He predicted Trump's "new proposal" delivered by Pompeo may be the U.S. guaranteeing the security of the North Korean regime.
"It seems Kim has agreed on CVID in exchange for accepting Trump's proposal of U.S. guaranteeing the security of its regime. An agreement may have been reached and it is set to be made official at the summit," Yang said.
Professor Kim agreed with this view, stating Kim and Pompeo likely have addressed the timeframe of denuclearization as well.
"There would have been contention over the issue. Many analysts including myself expect the two nations may aim for 2020 for North Korea's complete denuclearization, which is the end of Trump's term," Kim said.
"However, I believe the end point of North Korea's five year economic plan from 2016 to 2021 is also notable. North Korea may aim for denuclearization by then, with aims to complete reconstruction of its economy at the same time."
The South Korean government also backed the upbeat tone for the Kim-Trump summit.
"We hope that the last remaining division in the world will be dismantled through the two leaders' meeting," presidential spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom said. "We hope the door to peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula will be opened wide."
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