Moon needs fallback plan to handle Trump-Kim summit
By Kim Jae-kyoung
U.S. President Donald Trump will try to play hardball with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un over denuclearization at the upcoming summit, William Brown, a Washington-based North Korea expert, said Tuesday.
He said if the North really wants to build rapport with the U.S., the reclusive regime should consider shutting down fissile material plants together with nuclear test sites.
"Trump can be hard to read. Talking tough is a big part of his character and Kim might not be used to that," Brown, an adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, said in an interview.
"I don't see Trump backing away on much so we will see. I do think Kim is under great economic pressure and will be looking for relief. In other words, I think Trump is less in need of a success than Kim."
He suggests President Moon Jae-in come up with a fallback plan to deal with scenarios in which the Trump-Kim summit, expected to be held in early June, falls by the wayside.
"It still can go either way. I take Trump at his word that if he senses any backtracking he will, as he says, respectfully walk out and resume maximum pressure," he said.
"I hope Moon is prepared to handle that. More likely, though, they will agree to some kind of denuclearization process that will involve lots more meetings ― but no sanctions relief until progress is made."
Brown, who previously worked for the CIA and the National Intelligence Council, thinks the Moon-Kim summit was fruitful in that no stumbling blocks were presented to the more important Trump-Kim summit.
But he said everyone needs to lower their expectations for the meeting while allowing Trump to resort to maximum pressure if it looks like Kim is holding back.
"Kim needs the pressure to discourage any clever tricks," he said.
Brown stressed the importance of maintaining "maximum pressure" until the Kim regime shows palpable progress toward denuclearization.
"I especially like the fact that Moon did not suggest lifting sanctions or ending maximum pressure, which are needed now more than ever to make sure real progress can be achieved," he said.
From his perspective, Moon needs to assure Trump, Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe that he will still exert maximum pressure, if Kim fails to deliver progress with Trump.
Regarding the North's announcement of public shutdown of key nuclear test sites, he said Seoul and Washington need to maintain a cautious approach.
"It is good that he is putting out a signal that the testing program is over and it is a smart move on Kim's part.?Maybe most interesting is how public they are being about it," he said.
But in Brown's view, it can also be taken as a sign they no longer need to test, suggesting they have "proven" their weapons.
"Of course, we don't know if that is the case. It adds important ambiguity in their nuclear weapons capability ― do they have a warhead for a missile or not?" he said.
"If Trump's meeting with Kim doesn't go well, this would be an easy thing for them to retract. I expect they figure that gives them a little leverage."
The retired U.S. intelligence officer said if Kim wants to see real changes, he should stop producing fissile material. Otherwise, ending the war and pursuing denuclearization, he said, is "just happy talk."
"I'd be more insistent that the North shut down their fissile material plants, plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU). That would be a much better indication of sincerity for denuclearization," he said.
'Kim reacting to maximum pressure'
When asked whether the Kim regime is changing, Brown said sanctions have forced Kim to rethink his strategy.
"I think Kim is reacting to the maximum pressure and is in need of economic relief, especially given the fall in trade with China just in the past few months," he said.
According to the latest data released by China's authorities, imports from North Korea were almost nothing at $11 million in March.
"He sees Seoul as the weak link in the sanctions and is trying to take advantage," Brown said.
However, he noted there were also hopeful signs Kim is reforming the country's economic system.
Focusing on his words at recent central committee meetings, he said, "Kim is seemingly moving away from the Byongjin Line and concentrating on economic development. This is something I hope Trump can pursue."
By Kim Jae-kyoung
U.S. President Donald Trump will try to play hardball with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un over denuclearization at the upcoming summit, William Brown, a Washington-based North Korea expert, said Tuesday.
He said if the North really wants to build rapport with the U.S., the reclusive regime should consider shutting down fissile material plants together with nuclear test sites.
"Trump can be hard to read. Talking tough is a big part of his character and Kim might not be used to that," Brown, an adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, said in an interview.
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| William Brown |
He suggests President Moon Jae-in come up with a fallback plan to deal with scenarios in which the Trump-Kim summit, expected to be held in early June, falls by the wayside.
"It still can go either way. I take Trump at his word that if he senses any backtracking he will, as he says, respectfully walk out and resume maximum pressure," he said.
"I hope Moon is prepared to handle that. More likely, though, they will agree to some kind of denuclearization process that will involve lots more meetings ― but no sanctions relief until progress is made."
Brown, who previously worked for the CIA and the National Intelligence Council, thinks the Moon-Kim summit was fruitful in that no stumbling blocks were presented to the more important Trump-Kim summit.
But he said everyone needs to lower their expectations for the meeting while allowing Trump to resort to maximum pressure if it looks like Kim is holding back.
"Kim needs the pressure to discourage any clever tricks," he said.
Brown stressed the importance of maintaining "maximum pressure" until the Kim regime shows palpable progress toward denuclearization.
"I especially like the fact that Moon did not suggest lifting sanctions or ending maximum pressure, which are needed now more than ever to make sure real progress can be achieved," he said.
From his perspective, Moon needs to assure Trump, Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe that he will still exert maximum pressure, if Kim fails to deliver progress with Trump.
Regarding the North's announcement of public shutdown of key nuclear test sites, he said Seoul and Washington need to maintain a cautious approach.
"It is good that he is putting out a signal that the testing program is over and it is a smart move on Kim's part.?Maybe most interesting is how public they are being about it," he said.
But in Brown's view, it can also be taken as a sign they no longer need to test, suggesting they have "proven" their weapons.
"Of course, we don't know if that is the case. It adds important ambiguity in their nuclear weapons capability ― do they have a warhead for a missile or not?" he said.
"If Trump's meeting with Kim doesn't go well, this would be an easy thing for them to retract. I expect they figure that gives them a little leverage."
The retired U.S. intelligence officer said if Kim wants to see real changes, he should stop producing fissile material. Otherwise, ending the war and pursuing denuclearization, he said, is "just happy talk."
"I'd be more insistent that the North shut down their fissile material plants, plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU). That would be a much better indication of sincerity for denuclearization," he said.
'Kim reacting to maximum pressure'
When asked whether the Kim regime is changing, Brown said sanctions have forced Kim to rethink his strategy.
"I think Kim is reacting to the maximum pressure and is in need of economic relief, especially given the fall in trade with China just in the past few months," he said.
According to the latest data released by China's authorities, imports from North Korea were almost nothing at $11 million in March.
"He sees Seoul as the weak link in the sanctions and is trying to take advantage," Brown said.
However, he noted there were also hopeful signs Kim is reforming the country's economic system.
Focusing on his words at recent central committee meetings, he said, "Kim is seemingly moving away from the Byongjin Line and concentrating on economic development. This is something I hope Trump can pursue."
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