Inter-Korean summit to set tone for Trump-Kim Jong-un meeting

The summit between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will take place on April 27 at the Panmunjeom truce village, to be followed a summit between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump in May or June. / Graphics by Cho Sang-won

By Yi Whan-woo

The inter-Korean summit on April 27 is likely to set the tone of another summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump, according to analysts.

They said Pyongyang's nuclear program appeared to be at the top of agenda during the April 27 talks and that it would be ideal for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to declare denuclearization when he meets President Moon Jae-in.

The experts also said Kim, at his meeting with Trump, should discuss follow-up measures in dismantling the North's nuclear program.

Such a two-step scenario would help North Korea fulfill its goal of signing a peace treaty with the U.S. and securing the Pyongyang regime's survival.

But failure would push the Korean Peninsula back to the unstable situation it was in late last year when North Korea carried out a series of nuclear and ballistic missile tests and the U.S. threatened to strike the Kim regime.

The analysts pointed out that Trump's hawkish security aides have been mulling military options despite the reconciliatory mood on the peninsula.

Last week, CIA Director and U.S. Secretary of State Nominee Mike Pomeo warned that he could not rule out a military strike on North Korea or even a ground invasion.

Pomeo's warning came after U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said North Korea was “just buying time” to build nuclear-tipped missiles.

“Given this circumstance, the inter-Korean summit will be a barometer of the summit between Kim and Trump,” said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies.

Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, said, “The Moon-Kim meeting will influence what will be on the agenda when Kim and Trump sit at the same table.”

An suggested Kim would declare his willingness for denuclearization on April 27, and negotiate with Trump over how the U.S. could help North Korea lay the groundwork for such nuclear disarmament.

“The U.S. may consider a couple of approaches, such as lifting sanctions after Pyongyang's denuclearization or carrying out denuclearization and rapprochement at the same time,” An said.

President Moon Jae-in’s chief of staff Im Jong-seok, left, and other South Korean government officials look around a conference room at Panmunjeom truce village on April 6 as part of preparations for the inter-Korean summit on April 27. / Yonhap

But he said the “Libya model” as demanded by the U.S. hawks would not be ideal to resolve nuclear issues.

There is speculation that North Korea may not be interested in the “Libya model” following the U.S.-led air strike against Syria on Saturday.

The U.S. hawks said North Korea should follow the “Libya model” of giving up its nuclear program in return for rapprochement with the U.S.

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi ended his nuclear weapons program in 2003 to normalize relations with the U.S. but was later killed after his regime was toppled.

Diplomatic sources said that if Kim's summits with Moon and Trump were successful, the three nations could consider holding a joint summit to give a boost to denuclearization talks.

The sources still said the three parties also should consider the “China factor,” in holding the three-way summit, claiming Beijing may “try to disrupt it if it is excluded.”

A source claimed that in 2007, when President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il agreed on a possible three or four-party summit to discuss a peace treaty to replace the Korean War Armistice Agreement, China opposed the move.

“Before Roh, the South Korean governments, including Kim Young-sam's and Kim Dae-jung's, only mentioned a four-way summit involving China. And Beijing reacted sensitively when the three-way talks were proposed,” the source said.

The sources said Japan may try to “have its voice heard” over security issues on the peninsula, especially considering Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is in a corner over a political scandal and needs a exit strategy.

Meanwhile, the North Korean leader has been remaining low-key over Washington's wish to put all options, including military strikes, on the table to force Pyongyang's denuclearization.

On April 10, Pyongyang's state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KNCA) said Kim Jong-un had talked about prospects for dialogue with the U.S. at a meeting of the ruling Workers' Party.

The KNCA said Kim made a “profound analysis and appraisal" of inter-Korean ties and potential talks with the U.S.

“It is quite rare that North Korea mentioned details about the inter-Korean summit and future dialogue with the U.S.,” a South Korean foreign ministry official said. “North Korea seemed to attach meaning to the holding of the WPK meeting by reporting it.”

On April 15, North Korea celebrated the birthday anniversary of its late founder Kim Il-sung. The anniversary is North Korea's biggest national holiday and Pyongyang has held a festival every two years since 1982.

The North held cultural and sports events this year, apparently refraining from any provocative acts, which is in contrast with the past few years, when the holidays were accentuated by a missile test or a military parade.

The Kim regime test-fired what was presumed to be an intermediate range ballistic missile in 2016 and held a large-scale military parade in 2017.

The Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Workers' Party, also recently reported an improvement in North Korea-China ties instead of denouncing the U.S.

Kim met Song Tao, head of the Communist Party Central Committee international liaison department, who led the Chinese art troupe to Pyongyang on April 15.

Kim and the Chinese envoy exchanged views on “important matters of mutual concern,” according to KNCA.

But diplomatic sources speculated that Kim is trying to rally support from China, North Korea's largest benefactor, and bolster his diplomatic leverage before meeting Moon and Trump.

“Exchanged in earnest at the meeting were profound views on the important matters of mutual concern ... and the international situation,” the KCNA said without elaborating.

Kim was quoted as saying he “would positively carry forward and develop the traditional DPRK-China friendship into a fresh phase of development as required by a new era by further strengthening of the bilateral relations between the two parties including exchange of high-level delegations and undertaking the brisk cooperation and visits in various fields and sectors.”

The KCNA said Song expressed hope that the two countries would “make a fresh contribution to promoting the prolonged and stable development of their bilateral relations, providing the two countries and their peoples with happiness and ensuring peace and stability on the peninsula.”

The state-run media also reported that Workers' Party's central Committee vice chairman Ri Su-yong and Song exchanged views on advancing bilateral relations based on an agreement made at the recent meeting of the two countries' leaders.