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| News of U.S. President Donald Trump meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is shown on NHK TV in Tokyo. / Yonhap |
By Oh Young-jin
Anything related to North Korea ― especially something major ― should be taken not with a grain of salt but maybe with a spoonful.
Apply that history-proven rule and the breaking news of Pyongyang's invitation for U.S. President Donald Trump to a meeting is not one to jump for joy at, as if it would lead to the elusive goal of lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula.
True, it is a dramatic turnaround.
As Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator in his early 30s, pushed for development of nuclear and long-range missiles, Trump, the leader of the world's most powerful nation, used colorful words, for instance, threatening to give "fire and fury" to the North. Then, speaking to the world at the United Nations, Trump vowed to "totally destroy" the Kim dynasty.
Of course, he occasionally tried to be friendly, once offering to have a hamburger lunch with Kim, when the North was in downtime with its nuclear and missile testing. In his tweet, Trump mocked Kim as "Rocket Man" for the North's frequent missile tests.
The North is a master wordsmith when it remonstrates against the U.S. After all, the two fought the 1950-1953 Korean War that ended in a truce, with U.S. troops remaining on the Korean Peninsula ever since. The North's biggest rhetorical counterpunch was a Shakespearean word, "dotard," which it used in reference to Trump, who is more than twice Kim's age.
This war of words has made the chance of war palpable, with Trump sending not one but two aircraft carriers to the peninsula in a show of force. It is often said that two carriers are enough for the U.S. to wage war. The North has gone toe-to-toe with the U.S. by keeping its testing schedules despite Trump's threats.
But what prompted Rocket Man to offer an invitation and the Dotard to take it?
There can be many circumstances in play for the summit, making but only one fundamental and undeniable fact ― a meeting of their mutual interests.
From Kim Jong-un's perspective, a meeting with Trump would be of great benefit instantly for a change of air, so to speak. There is much speculation, some well thought out, that the U.S. might preemptively strike Pyongyang to stop it from making nuclear-armed intercontinental missiles that can hit the U.S. Then there are international sanctions that are putting a stranglehold on the impoverished nation.
Plus, if the North has not mastered its weapons of mass destruction, it is very close to it. Last November, it declared it had become a nuclear weapon state. Meeting Trump would buy time in the lead-up to May while the summit is being prepared and for months or so in the post-summit afterglow.
Even if the two reach major agreement ― renunciation of nuclear weapons or a return to the global nuclear regimes such as rejoining the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty ― the North would have an option of procrastinating.
That way, Kim would outlast Trump, who has three years left in office, with a lot of domestic challenges ahead. If Trump manages to get reelected, Kim might become mellower and not likely dare wage a potential nuclear war. All he would have to do is prepare for the next U.S. president.
For Trump, the summit would be an awesome ego trip ― showing the world and detractors that after all he is a great politician and statesman that they have failed to recognize.
Trump also could mock his detractors by saying his negotiating skills, as shown in his "The Art of the Deal," had paid off in dealing with the North. He would set out to do what Bill Clinton, the husband of his nemesis Hillary Rodham Clinton, had failed to do ― go to Pyongyang to seal the denuclearization deal.
Perhaps a Nobel Peace Prize would cap his presidency through a "kind" of deal with the North. That would make him equal to Barack Obama, Trump's Democratic predecessor who won the Nobel Prize at the start of his presidency.
Trump knows he would be responsible for the next seven years and anything that happens after that won't be his responsibility.
By any standard, a meeting of Trump and Kim would be historic thanks to the absence of precedents. But it surely won't change history as we know it ― the current situation of standoff that is the result of the bloody three-year war and the following seven decades of confrontation.
Above all, the North can't afford to let go of its nuclear weapons, because relinquishing them is tantamount to losing its own self-defense capability and putting its fate in somebody else's hand.
We need to look directly at what the North is offering ― nothing more than a chance to talk. Since the proposal is sugar-coated by the prospect of settlement, it looks tempting, but it would be prudent to think that it could be a hollow candy with nothing inside.
Still, it would be a pleasant surprise if the Dotard-Rocket Man meeting achieves more than a meeting for a meeting's sake.
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