By Yi Whan-woo
Questions are growing over whether two annual spring military exercises here _ Key Resolve and Foal Eagle _ should be held next year after the U.N. General Assembly approved a resolution urging all countries to stop hostilities from seven days before to seven days after the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics and Paralympic Winter Games.
The Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, Gangwon Province, are slated for Feb. 9 to 25, and the Paralympics Winter Games are scheduled from March 9 to 18.
Such timing overlaps with that of Key Resolve and Foal Eagle as the two South Korea-U.S. joint drills usually kick off around late February or early March here and run through April.
Approved on Monday, the U.N resolution, also known as the “Olympic Truce,” was especially aimed at North Korea.
But analysts raised concerns, Tuesday, that the Kim Jong-un regime may cite the resolution as a reason why Key Resolve and Foal Eagle should be suspended next year.
The experts speculated that the repressive state can make military provocations during the Olympics and hold South Korea and the U.S. accountable if the allies go ahead with the combined military exercises.
Pyongyang has repeatedly denounced the two drills as “rehearsal for invasion” of North Korea.
“I wouldn’t say running Key Resolve and Foal Eagle will be in violation of the U.N. resolution. But it can be viewed paradoxical if we ask North Korea to stop provocations and carry out what its regime sees as a hostile act,” said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies.
Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy, agreed.
“For Seoul and Washington, the two exercises are held regularly and viewed as internationally lawful. But Pyongyang does not see it that way and we should take such differences into account for our Olympics to succeed.”
The analysts proposed the Moon Jae-in administration to postpone the disputed spring drills in consultation with the U.S. and consider running them seven days after the Paralympics.
They speculated that such possible measures may lead North Korea, which has not decided whether to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Games, to join the games.
They also speculated that any postponement of the two exercises may help find a breakthrough for inter-Korean reconciliation.
“The exercises are not likely to be suspended next year considering U.S. President Donald Trump’s hawkish policy on North Korea but I don’t think Trump will disagree on holding them a little later than usual,” said Paik Hak-soon, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
“Under those circumstances, North Korea may appreciate the allies’ efforts and may consider returning to negotiations.”
Analyst An agreed, saying, “Our inter-Korean reconciliatory efforts will gain momentum if we delay the drills, because it can give North Korea a reason to become less hostile.”
Professor Kim said postponing the drills will “give Seoul the edge over Pyongyang” if the latter commits provocative actions during the Olympics.
“It can’t be guaranteed that North Korea will not provoke even when Key Resolve and Foal Eagle do not take place during the Winter Games. But if it provokes, it will further be put into corner as such act will be in violation of U.N. resolutions.”
The Moon administration did not make an announcement, Tuesday, over the timing of the two drills next year.
The Ministry of Unification, however, said it hopes North Korea will take part in the Olympics and discuss relevant issues with the South in “a discreet manner.”
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed the U.N. resolution, vowing efforts to make the PyeongChang games a success.