By Yi Whan-woo
North Korea has not carried out any military provocations for over 70 days, fueling speculations about why.
Some claim Pyongyang is having trouble mastering ballistic missile technology, while others say it is waiting for the world to offer carrots in return for ceasing its provocations.
The longer-than-expected suspension came after Pyongyang fired a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile Sept. 15.
U.S. Donald Trump’s tour to five Asian nations including South Korea, Japan and China as well as a rare convergence of three U.S. supercarriers in early November were once thought to be reasons for Pyongyang remaining low key.
Some analysts said there must be other reasons given that it has been weeks since Trump and the three U.S. carriers left.
They speculated that Pyongyang’s suspension of provocations is unintentional and is attributed to possible domestic events, such as a failure to make advances in its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology.
They also speculated that a power struggle between North Korean military and Workers’ Party officials may have delayed the ICBM test.
“It once made sense to say North Korea kept a slow, controlled tempo in its military provocations when Trump came to Seoul and three supercarriers joined the South Korea-U.S. naval drill. Now, it seems Pyongyang wants to fire an ICBM but is having trouble in mastering re-entry and other tricky technology,” said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, agreed, saying, “Technical problems may be the cause of the delay of the launch.”
Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA), said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be still waiting for the U.S. and China to offer to resume dialogue, although he recently snubbed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s special envoy to Pyongyang, Song Tao.
Secret contact between the U.S. and North Korea to resume dialogue lately has also believed to have failed.
“The U.N. Security Council sanctions are apparently choking North Korea to a serious level and the repressive state appears to be refraining from provocations to make a breakthrough,” the KNDA professor said.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, said North Korea may continue to hold back on provocations until 2018 PyeongChang Olympics and Paralympic Winter Games, during which the U.N. General Assembly asked all countries stop hostilities and observe a truce.
The timing of the Olympics overlaps with that of two spring military exercises between Seoul and Washington -- Key Resolve and Foal Eagle -- and it is being debated whether these should be delayed.
“It’s possible Pyongyang will make a decision on provocations depending on whether Key Resolve and Foal Eagle are delayed or not,” the professor said.
Meanwhile, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, predicted on Nov. 22 that there is an “elevated likelihood” of North Korea weapons of mass destruction activity in the next 14 to 30 days.