By Kim Rahn
Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon said Wednesday the chances of North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons are extremely low.
The remark by one of the nation's top government officials in charge of North Korea issues came as international society has been intensifying sanctions against Pyongyang to make it scrap its nuclear program.
In a lecture organized by the Chinese Embassy in Seoul, the Korea-China Leaders Society and a forum of next-generation leaders of Korea and China, he said the chances for the North giving up its nuclear ambitions are very low when looking at the situation with a cool head.
"It is a euphemistic expression; for now, it might not be wrong to say there is no chance for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, because it believes nuclear weapons are its lifeline," Cho said.
He said the sanctions on the North are gradually producing an effect but only adding sanctions cannot make the Kim Jong-un regime give up its nuclear weapons.
"Will Kim give up the nuclear weapons when his people suffer from starvation? He believes his regime and North Korean society will collapse if he gives up nuclear weapons, so he will hold out for as long as possible in such circumstances," Cho said.
The minister said a military option to resolve the nuclear issue had been mentioned by previous administrations as well, but noted that such an option now poses a much higher risk.
"It could produce miserable results which we cannot handle, so we have to exclude military action in resolving the issue."
Cho pointed out the needs to set conditions to make North Korea give up nuclear weapons. "An economic approach is required. I don't mean we need to throw money at the North under the United Nations Security Council sanctions, but we need to take an economic approach on a level that does not damage such pressure," he said. "I seek to change the situation in the North and resolve the nuclear issue through cooperation with the North."
Regarding Pyongyang's nuclear capability, the minister said experts predict the country will be able to complete developing the weapons in two years, but added there is a chance for it to do so by next year.
Cho also reiterated the government stance not to redeploy U.S. tactical nuclear weapons here to deter the North, a deterrence option pursued by the main opposition Liberty Korea Party. "From the government's point of view, the redeployment is practically impossible and we are not considering it for now," he said.
"Redeploying tactical nuclear weapons means we acknowledge the North possesses a nuclear capability. There is a big difference between officially recognizing the North as a nuclear state and not doing so."
He said redeployment may cause a similar response as the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which has brought strong backlash and economic retaliation from China which does not want the expansion of the U.S. military presence in Northeast Asia.
"We have already been suffering from difficulties regarding THAAD. If we say we would redeploy U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, the same trouble can take place," he said.
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| Cho Myoung-gyon |
The remark by one of the nation's top government officials in charge of North Korea issues came as international society has been intensifying sanctions against Pyongyang to make it scrap its nuclear program.
In a lecture organized by the Chinese Embassy in Seoul, the Korea-China Leaders Society and a forum of next-generation leaders of Korea and China, he said the chances for the North giving up its nuclear ambitions are very low when looking at the situation with a cool head.
"It is a euphemistic expression; for now, it might not be wrong to say there is no chance for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, because it believes nuclear weapons are its lifeline," Cho said.
He said the sanctions on the North are gradually producing an effect but only adding sanctions cannot make the Kim Jong-un regime give up its nuclear weapons.
"Will Kim give up the nuclear weapons when his people suffer from starvation? He believes his regime and North Korean society will collapse if he gives up nuclear weapons, so he will hold out for as long as possible in such circumstances," Cho said.
The minister said a military option to resolve the nuclear issue had been mentioned by previous administrations as well, but noted that such an option now poses a much higher risk.
"It could produce miserable results which we cannot handle, so we have to exclude military action in resolving the issue."
Cho pointed out the needs to set conditions to make North Korea give up nuclear weapons. "An economic approach is required. I don't mean we need to throw money at the North under the United Nations Security Council sanctions, but we need to take an economic approach on a level that does not damage such pressure," he said. "I seek to change the situation in the North and resolve the nuclear issue through cooperation with the North."
Regarding Pyongyang's nuclear capability, the minister said experts predict the country will be able to complete developing the weapons in two years, but added there is a chance for it to do so by next year.
Cho also reiterated the government stance not to redeploy U.S. tactical nuclear weapons here to deter the North, a deterrence option pursued by the main opposition Liberty Korea Party. "From the government's point of view, the redeployment is practically impossible and we are not considering it for now," he said.
"Redeploying tactical nuclear weapons means we acknowledge the North possesses a nuclear capability. There is a big difference between officially recognizing the North as a nuclear state and not doing so."
He said redeployment may cause a similar response as the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which has brought strong backlash and economic retaliation from China which does not want the expansion of the U.S. military presence in Northeast Asia.
"We have already been suffering from difficulties regarding THAAD. If we say we would redeploy U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, the same trouble can take place," he said.
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