By Rachel Lee
South Korea and the United States will begin their annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) joint exercise Monday amid escalating tension on the Korean Peninsula after Pyongyang's recent launch of two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and threats against Guam.
The two allies are expected to step up preparations for possible provocations by the North to protest against the drill that lasts till Aug. 31, military officials here said, Sunday.
Whether or not North Korea causes further provocations during or after the exercise will be a turning point for the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang has denounced such drills as a rehearsal for invading it, reacting with military threats.
Two days after UFG last year, the North test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in waters off its east coast to protest the joint exercise. Pyongyang also conducted its fifth nuclear test Sept. 9 last year, which marked the 68th anniversary of the establishment of the reclusive regime.
During the 2015 exercise, the North fired what appeared to be a rocket into Yeoncheon County, near the border north of Seoul, to protest South Korean propaganda broadcasts. The South responded by firing dozens of shells targeting the launch site in the North.
Experts say the Kim regime could use this year's UFG as an excuse again for further provocations.
North Korea made public scenes of Gen. Kim Rak-gyom, commander of the Strategic Force, reporting to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un the military's detailed plan to strike waters off Guam with missiles, and promised to show the launches to the public if the plan was carried out, said Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the Institute for Far East Studies of Kyungnam University.
"Looking at the past cases, this year could be the same," the professor added.
"During the UFG exercise, North Korea will not raise military tension as a number of U.S. forces are deployed here, but it could commit provocations somewhere like the Northern Limit Line (NLL)," said Cha Doo Hyeogn, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) has denounced the joint exercise, saying it could drive the Korean Peninsula into catastrophe.
No further threats have been made by North Korea since its leader Kim said last week that the country would watch U.S. behavior for now after being briefed on the Guam plan.
Pyongyang, however, could stay quiet this time and seek instead to hold talks with Washington, according to experts.
No further provocation until Sept. 9 could ease tension on the peninsula and pave the way for dialogue. Sept. 9 marks the 69th anniversary of the country's founding.
According to Seoul's defense ministry, the exercise will be carried out on a similar scale as last year. But the likelihood is that South Korea and the U.S. could keep it low-key to avoid provoking North Korea.
U.S. strategic assets such as B-1B heavy bombers and nuclear-powered submarines are unlikely to participate in the exercise. North Korea has reacted angrily about the deployment of such assets to the Korea Peninsula.
And the number of U.S. forces has fallen this year: approximately 17,500 U.S. service members are expected to participate in the exercise, with about 3,000 coming from outside the peninsula. About 25,000 U.S. service members participated in the exercise last year.
A government official said the government will be keeping a close eye on North Korea during the joint exercise, calling for Pyongyang to stop provocations and take steps toward denuclearization.
UFG will also include forces from Australia, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. The Swiss and Swedish delegations of the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission will monitor the exercise to ensure that it complies with the Armistice Agreement.
The United Nations Command Military Armistice Commission informed Pyongyang of the exercise dates and the non-provocative nature of the routine training, the allies' Combined Forces Command.
Tensions escalated with the North and the U.S. threatening each other in a war of words after Pyongyang launched two intercontinental ballistic missiles last month. The U.N. Security Council adopted a Washington-led sanctions resolution on Pyongyang earlier this month.
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