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| President Donald Trump speaks during a cabinet meeting with Defense Secretary James Mattis, second from left, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, third from left, and Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao at the White House in Washington, D.C., Monday. / EPA-Yonhap |
By Yi Whan-woo
Regime change in North Korea is not a feasible option to address Pyongyang's nuclear and missile issues, analysts in Seoul said Tuesday, although some U.S. experts suggested it as a viable solution after the North's test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Friday.
South Korean officials and analysts talked of a possible collapse of the Kim Jong-un regime in 2016 when then-President Park Geun-hye encouraged North Korean civilians to defect to the South, which provoked Pyongyang.
But the issue is drawing attention again on a higher level after former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger hinted that it could be a new approach to settle the North Korean nuclear crisis.
"I believe we have a better chance of getting to the nuclear problem with North Korea if we first come to an agreement with China about what follows after the collapse of the North Korean regime," Kissinger told The New York Times, Saturday, following Pyongyang's purported success in its second ICBM test.
"That would include a commitment from the United States to withdraw most of its troops from the Korean Peninsula after a North Korean collapse, to allay the Chinese fear that, with the buffer of North Korea gone, the United States military would be right on its border."
Bruce Klingner, a former chief of the CIA's Seoul branch and senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center, echoed his view in a separate interview with CNBC.
"We need to avoid a premature return to negotiations," Klingner said, adding that the ICBM will put more of the continental U.S. at risk.
On July 21, CIA Director Mike Pompeo also said, "There are things we can do to keep the (nuclear) capability out of Kim's hands" adding that he hopes to "find a way to separate that regime from this system."
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Most security and diplomacy experts here, however, do not see an attempt to change the regime as a viable option.
"The idea of removing Kim has emerged because the U.S. can't find other practical measures to resolve North Korea's nuclear threats," said Park Young-ho, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. "But it doesn't mean the U.S. can remove Kim right away."
Yang Uk, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said convincing the North Korean elite would be key if the U.S. wants to seek regime change in collaboration with China.
"North Korea will not fall just because Kim is removed," he said. "Although it appears to be on the verge of collapse, it is a country that has its own ruling system that has lasted for over 60 years. In that regards, inducing the top-ranked North Korean officials to rise against Kim and give up their nuclear weapons will be important."
Paik Hak-soon, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, downplayed the idea of regime change, saying, "dialogue will the best way for Pyongyang's denuclearization."
"Of course, Washington can't do it alone and will need to work with Beijing." Paik said.
For a possible U.S-North Korea dialogue, he suggested offering carrots, such as stopping any actions that Pyongyang finds hostile, offering a peace agreement and not deploying U.S. nuclear assets to the peninsula.
Meanwhile, a North Korean defector-turned researcher in Seoul said removing the young tyrant could be possible.
"As suggested by Kissinger, winning China's support would be critical to overthrow the Pyongyang regime," said An Chan-il, the head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies.
"And I believe the idea can be put into action because in my opinion, Chinese President Xi Jinping does not like Kim and wants a new North Korea led by a pro-China figure."
He claimed that the U.S. also may be able to win support from the North Korean elite in the Workers' Party and the military, saying, "They have complained about Kim's tyranny and are eager to see someone who can remove him."
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