Greater Trump trade pressure looming

President Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump walk into the Rose Garden to deliver a joint statement to the press at the White House in Washington, D.C., Saturday (KST) / UPI-Yonhap

Moon gains support for initiative to open dialogue with NK

By Kim Rahn

President Moon Jae-in returned home Sunday from his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, securing support for his initiatives to resolve North Korean issues with dialogue in return for modifications in trade deals and a greater burden to keep American troops here.

In their first meeting and summit in Washington, D.C., from Thursday to Friday, the two leaders seem to have built personal trust and friendship, which is important for them in seeking cooperation on various issues during what will almost be their whole terms in office.

However, the two showed a gap on the trade issue, implying possible future conflict over the trade deal including the South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement (KORUS FTA) which Trump has long criticized for causing a deficit with his country.

Trump said his relationship with Moon was “very, very, very, good” and described it as “great chemistry,” according to Cheong Wa Dae officials.

Moon also invited Trump to visit South Korea this year, and Trump accepted without hesitation.

The summit has drawn positive reactions from analysts. ”There were more upsides than downsides from the summit,” said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University.

Park gave credit to Moon for reassuring the alliance with the U.S. was paramount and also reaching an agreement over their approach to North Korea’s nuclear issues.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said, “I’d say the two leaders communicated in a frank and sincere manner. In particular, the U.S. showed respect toward Korea’s view over security on the Korean Peninsula.”

With U.S. support, it appears that South Korea will be able to facilitate efforts to resume dialogue with North Korea, Yang said.

War of nerves

However, on practical issues, it seems that the two nations had a diplomatic “war of nerves” on certain points.

A joint statement, which was expected to be made before the two leaders make comments in front of the press, came out about seven hours after the event.

Analysts said Trump’s support for Moon’s approach toward North Korea will likely be conditional on a renegotiation of the free trade deal with the United States and increased costs to keep the U.S. forces here.

Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said, “I’d summarize the summit as ‘The U.S. assurances on South Korea’s North Korea policy in return for money.’”

In addressing the North Korea issue, Seoul gained Washington’s support as the two leaders agreed they could open dialogue with Pyongyang under the right conditions and that Seoul take the leading role in inter-Korean talks.

Previously, Trump said that any negotiation with Pyongyang would only be possible after denuclearization. But he and Moon agreed not to maintain a hostile policy toward the North and to “stand ready to offer a brighter future for North Korea if it chooses the right path,” according to the statement.

Although the statement did not say whether Trump agreed with Moon’s idea of a two-step solution for the nuclear issue -- first, a nuclear freeze and second, complete disarmament -- the statement implies that the two leaders had a general consensus on the need for a phased approach using both sanctions and dialogue.

But what they would and should do in each step of the process has not been set, so there is still the possibility of conflict between Seoul and Washington later.

Yang Uk, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, ”I assess the summit positively, given that the two countries had a discrepancy over U.S. anti-missile system and other key issues. The first meeting between Moon and Trump was apparently a success.”

However, it remains uncertain how the U.S. extended deterrence and role of the U.S. military will change here, he said.

“It was foreseeable for Moon and Trump to raise issues on South Korea’s defense-cost sharing. It’s all about money and I wonder how the Moon administration can shoulder costs accordingly,” Yang said.

Trade friction brewing

On the trade issue, by contrast, Trump poured out demands to Moon, calling for measures to fix the “trade imbalance,” which he believes mainly comes from the current FTA.

According to the joint statement, the two leaders said they would foster expanded and balanced trade and create reciprocal benefits and fair treatment between the two nations.

But at the beginning of the summit, Trump said, “We are renegotiating a trade deal right now with South Korea, and hopefully it will be an equitable deal. It will be a fair deal for both parties. It’s been a rough deal for the U.S., but I think that it will be much different and will be good for both parties.”

In a speech after the summit, Trump also said the two were working to create a fair and reciprocal economic relationship, adding the FTA increased the U.S. trade deficit with South Korea by more than $11 billion since 2011.

But the Korean government said there would not be a renegotiation of the FTA, saying the U.S. may see deficits in automobiles and steel but Korea sees deficits in agriculture and the services sector.

“During the summit, Trump raised questions about his country’s trade deficit and trade imbalance in automobiles and steel, calling for the need for certain measures or a new deal,” presidential chief of staff for policy Chang Ha-sung said. “Then Moon stressed reciprocal benefits and suggested working-level officials of the two countries conduct a joint survey about the effects of the FTA.”

Despite Chang’s explanation, it is to be seen whether or not Trump will demand a renegotiation of the KORUS FTA in the near future or after the joint survey is finished.

Against expectations, the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea was not a topic in the summit.

U.S. policymakers had expressed concerns about the possible withdrawal of the battery after late May when Moon ordered a full-scale environmental impact assessment of the system after finding out there were procedural flaws in the installation, suspending full deployment.

During the visit, Moon explained to U.S. congressmen and government officials that the assessment is aimed at securing procedural legitimacy and that he will not reverse the deployment agreement made by his predecessor.