By Jane Han
DALLAS — It's no longer surprising that many South Koreans remain unfazed by North Korea's provocations — whether it be a missile or nuclear test — and the reaction following Pyongyang's nuclear test Friday was no different.
But a prominent nuclear expert in the U.S. says this is a "huge mistake."
"These are real military capabilities that could kill millions of Koreans, and eventually, Americans, too," said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in an interview with The Korea Times.
"North Korea believes its nuclear weapons are necessary to deter an attack and, if deterrence fails, repel an invasion by the United States and South Korea," said Lewis.
What this means is they'll hit Seoul, they'll hit Busan and they'll hit U.S. forces in Japan in the hopes that the shock of that nuclear attack will stop the U.S.
North Korea conducted its fifth, largest and most successful nuclear test, Friday. Pyongyang claimed it had mastered the technology to mount a warhead on a ballistic missile.
According to many nuclear experts, the size of the latest explosion is slightly below the power of the bombs that destroyed Nagasaki and Hiroshima.
"These are not playthings or props," said Lewis. "North Korea is moving toward deploying a force of nuclear-armed ballistic missiles."
He stressed that Kim Jong-un's regime is more likely to engage in provocations, like the sinking of the Cheonan, and raises the risk of a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula.
North Korea has conducted five tests, explained Lewis, which means that it can make relatively efficient use of plutonium and highly enriched uranium.
He said Pyongyang may have about 20 nuclear weapons with more on the way.
"There are, at the moment, no constraints that would prevent North Korea from expanding its arsenal," said Lewis.
The latest nuclear test has prompted new and tougher sanctions from the international community, namely the U.S., but critics say sanctions have failed against the repressive state.
"Sanctions have a very limited value," said Lewis. "They cannot do more than delay a nuclear weapons program."
For sanctions to work, he says, they cannot be gradually added in a way that allows the country to adjust to them.
What seems to have happened is that sanctions, while bad for the country as a whole, are good for the elite of North Korea, who control smuggling and sales of contraband, according to Lewis.
If the global community does nothing, Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program will grow quickly.
"I think Kim Jong-un is very predictable," he said. "He will continue to work toward a nuclear-armed force that includes solid-fueled missiles as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the United States. Given enough time, North Korea will develop thermonuclear weapons for these missiles."
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