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Protesters rally near the U.S. Embassy in Seoul on April 29 to protest against the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD), a day after Donald Trump suggested billing South Korea for it. / AP-Yonhap |
By Yi Whan-woo
U.S. President Donald Trump's priority on self-interest over the Seoul-Washington alliance may pose security challenges for the next South Korean president on top of North Korea's growing nuclear threats, analysts say.
They say the Trump administration may take advantage of South Korea's reliance on the U.S. "nuclear umbrella" to press Seoul to meet U.S. demands aimed at benefitting the U.S. military and economy.
They cite Trump's latest remark about billing South Korea for deploying a U.S. missile shield, and his national security adviser H. R. McMaster's reversal of words about Washington's commitment to bear deployment costs.
Trump told Reuters and the Washington Times on April 28 that "it would be appropriate" if South Korea paid for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which he priced at $1 billion.
He also said he would either renegotiate or terminate the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA), which he repeatedly called a "job-killing" deal.
In a later phone conversation with National Security Office chief Kim Kwan-jin, McMaster reaffirmed the Seoul-Washington agreement, under which the U.S. agreed to pay for deploying and operating THAAD in exchange for Seoul providing land and relevant infrastructure.
But McMaster then voiced Trump's view during the "Fox News Sunday" interview, saying "the deal is in place" only until renegotiation.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said, "I agree that the U.S. could increase security risks on the Korean Peninsula under Trump's rule."
"The Trump administration may focus on its self-interests regarding the Seoul-Washington-alliance, as seen from Trump's comment on THAAD renegotiation."
Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, said, "The next South Korean government better get ready for a growing ‘Trump risk.'"
"I would not call a ‘Trump risk' as the U.S posing a security risk, but the security risks could grow if the incoming administration fails to placate Trump's complaints about South Korea,"Park said. "Underscoring the principles and values regarding the alliance as we did with Trump's predecessors will not work on unpredictable Trump."
The experts ruled out the possibility of THAAD deployment costs being renegotiated. But they said Trump might use THAAD as leverage to ask Seoul to shoulder more of the financial burden of defense cost-sharing.
Trump has accused South Korea of "free-riding" the U.S. on defense.
"Trump will definitely ask South Korea to shoulder more of defense cost-sharing, although it remains uncertain for how much he will try to raise," said Kim Hyun-wook, a U.S. expert at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.
Park speculated that Trump might push to transfer wartime operational control (OPCON) to South Korea as soon as possible if his demands were not met.
Seoul and Washington agreed in 2014 to delay transferring OPCON to South Korean troops from the U.S. "indefinitely" amid increasing military threats from the North.
"I don't think it will be the case for Trump to withdraw all American forces from South Korea, reduce their numbers, or merge them as part of the U.S. forces stationed in Japan," he said.
"And this is because by simply transferring OPCON, Trump will have various ways to influence the Seoul-Washington alliance."
Kim Hyun-wook said concerns over the so-called "Korea Passing," Seoul's diplomatic isolation in the Trump era, mighty deepen if South Korea failed to coordinate issues with the U.S.
"I don't think withdrawing or downsizing the U.S. forces is realistic," he said. "Trump instead may ignore South Korea and talk only with other regional neighbors when it comes to issues on the peninsula."
He added that South Korea would have no choice but to try to improve inter-Korean ties if its relations with the U.S. went wrong.
"The two Koreas' relations with China are now at their lowest levels while relations with Pyongyang and Washington remain unfriendly," he said. "In this circumstance, Seoul will have no option — if Seoul's relations with Washington are disrupted, South Korea will need desperately to mend ties with Pyongyang."
Park disagreed, saying, "The North will capitalize on any possible worsening of Seoul-Washington ties and step up its military threats."
The experts are also divided over how China and Japan would react.
Park speculated that China might step up pressure on South Korea while trying to widen the Seoul-Washington gap.
"We've witnessed it from Beijing's economic retaliation over the THAAD deployment," he said.
"We also know for sure that China has been seeking to alienate South Korea from the trilateral alliance with the U.S. and Japan."
Park said Japan's hawkish Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his cabinet might call for strengthening the trilateral alliance on one hand while seeking possible ways for the Japanese military to enter the peninsula forcibly in the event of war.
"The issues on the possible presence of the Japanese military here are likely to be talked about intensively if there is a crack in the Seoul-Washington alliance," he said.
Kim Hyun-wook said China might welcome any South Korea move to mend ties with the North and that Seoul-Beijing ties may improve as well.
Trump added fuel to the debate among South Korean presidential candidates about the THAAD deployment
The camp of Moon Jae-in, the Democratic Party of Korea candidate who led his rivals by a wide margin in polls, said Trump's suggestion of billing South Korea for deploying THAAD was an "impossible option."
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