Conservative voters may decide result
By Kim Hyo-jin
Presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party has knocked frontrunner Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) off the top spot in several poll results released Sunday, a month before the May 9 election.
Moon, who had been leading the polls for months, slipped back to 32.7 percent as Ahn gained 36.8 percent in a poll conducted by Korea Research Center.
In the hypothetical two-way competition, Ahn beat Moon by over 10 percentage points, with 49.4 percent to Moon's 36.2 percent.
Ahn was also neck and neck with Moon in other polls.
Another poll conducted by Hankook Research on the commission of Hankook Ilbo, the sister paper of The Korea Times, showed Moon gained 37.7 percent, and Ahn was on his heels, having 37 percent.
Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party trailed Ahn with 6.7 percent, with Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party at 3.6 percent and Yoo Seong-min of the Bareun Party at 3 percent.
"It is only a matter of time for Moon and Ahn's support ratings to be reversed," an official at the polling agency said.
Another poll conducted by Research and Research showed Moon gained 35.2 percent of support, closely followed by Ahn with 34.5 percent. But in a virtual two-way race, Ahn outran Moon with 48.4 percent to 39.2 percent, according to the poll.
Ahn has been soaking up support from conservative voters who have not had a strong enough leader to take them toward an election victory, a result of the downfall of the conservative parties along with former President Park Geun-hye's impeachment. It is the first time Ahn has taken the top spot in a poll.
In the wake of the presidential corruption scandal, conservative voters initially supported former U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon. As he dropped out of the race, they moved to acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn, who said he would not run for election, then to South Chungcheong Province Governor An Hee-jung, who lost to Moon in the DPK's primaries.
Now they seem to opt for Ahn, as many conservative voters with the "anybody but Moon" sentiment will look for ways to keep Moon out of Cheong Wa Dae, analysts say.
There has been an expectation that Ahn may form an alliance with conservative candidates against Moon. However, as Ahn's support alone is now increasing, he may not opt for such an option with a notion that he cannot risk losing support from the liberal side of the political spectrum by joining hands with conservatives.
Considering election expenses, Yoo's alliance with Ahn could still be possible. According to the National Election Commission, only when a candidate gains over 15 percent of votes in the presidential poll, will his or her campaign expenses be fully recovered with a national subsidy, and for those with over 10 percent, half of the cost will be covered. Those who earn less than 10 percent get nothing back. Yoo has suffered from a low single-digit support rate.
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