Seoul advised to reexamine all policy options after May election
This is the fifth in a series of interviews with international experts on North Korea to see how its nuclear issues will unfold down the road and seek ways to secure stability on the Korean Peninsula. -- ED.
By Kim Jae-kyoung
Donald Trump's provocative strategy on North Korea could lead to a military conflict making South Korea the biggest victim, warned Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association.
She said diplomacy through negotiations is the only way to stop North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship, calling for the Trump administration to give more weight to engagement.
Her warning came as Trump has chosen a policy that will maximize pressure on the reclusive country through tougher sanctions and military signaling, while keeping a door open for engagement.
"If Trump is serious about talking with North Korea and reaching an agreement, this plan could lead to progress on halting and eventually rolling back North Korea's nuclear and missile programs," she said.
"But to get there, Trump needs to signal to Kim Jong-un that the offer for engagement is real. Otherwise, pressure _ without a plan for diplomacy _ is a dead end."
Davenport, who provides research and analysis on nuclear and missile programs in North Korea and Iran, forecast that a pre-emptive strike will result in a military conflict.
"There is a lot of loose talk about a U.S. military strike to prevent a North Korean ICBM test. This rhetoric is dangerous and unhelpful."
She pointed out that in addition to the illegality of a preventative strike, U.S. military action would only inflame tensions, likely lead to a military conflict, and increase the risk of nuclear weapons being used," she said.
"In this case, South Korea would pay the price for Washington's blunder. Diplomacy is the only way to stop North Korea's dangerous and illicit activities."
She recommended the Trump administration "consider all options" when reviewing its policies. "That will acquaint Trump and his advisers with the costs and consequences of certain policy choices," she said.
According to Davenport, additional sanctions have some effect on sending a message that Pyongyang's provocations will not go unpunished but they are short of changing the totalitarian country's behavior.
"Sanctions are not a strategy. They have little chance of success without a plan to engage North Korea in negotiations to first freeze and then roll back its illicit nuclear and missile activities," she said.
Talks without preconditions
The Washington-based North Korea expert said that absent a diplomatic effort, continued nuclear and missile testing in North Korea is inevitable.
"North Korea is clearly taking steps to strengthen its nuclear deterrent and develop the capability to target the United States with its ballistic missiles," she said.
"North Korea could certainly test either on short notice or in response to a perceived provocation by South Korea or the U.S."
Negotiations in her words are the only way to halt the dangerous trajectory of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.
"It will be critical for Trump to move quickly and for both sides to refrain from provocative rhetoric and actions that could cause escalatory spirals and narrow the chances for diplomacy," she said.
Once the South Korean election takes place and Washington confers with Seoul, she said, "The Trump administration should explore the possibility of talks without preconditions designed to freeze and eventually roll back North Korea's nuclear program."
She urged Trump to find the right package of pressure and incentives to spur North Korea to reach an agreement and abide by it.
She said these incentives can be carefully calibrated to ensure that if Kim Jong-un violates a deal, pressure can be quickly reapplied because the U.S. has cards it can play that would be attractive to North Korea.
In her view, reducing military exercises with South Korea, delaying the deployment of missile defenses and offering security guarantees can be possible incentives.
"These are all things the U.S. can put on the table to reach a deal," she said. "Washington can also quickly reverse these actions if North Korea pulls out of an agreement."
She warned that the longer the Trump administration waits, however, the more time North Korea has to advance its nuclear and missile programs.
"These developments will make negotiating more difficult and could result in North Korea demanding a higher price from the United States and its negotiating partners to freeze and then ideally dismantle its capabilities," she said.
Reassessing policy options
Davenport said that once a new leader is elected in the May election, South Korea should take a fresh look at its policies and role in resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis.
"It is imperative that Seoul push back against policy options or tactics that might undermine South Korean security, such as redeploying U.S. nuclear weapons, expanding missile defenses, or preventative strikes on North Korean sites such as missile launch areas," she said.
She thinks these actions risk escalation, possibly toward military conflict, in which South Korea would pay a high price.
"Slowing down missile defense also sends a message to China that South Korea is cognizant of Beijing's concerns about the system and recognizes China should play a role in diplomacy with North Korea," she said.
She also said the U.S. and South Korea should not count on North Korean regime collapse, nor contribute to any collapse by targeting its leaders.
"If the state does collapse, uncertainty about the locations of North Korea's nuclear warheads will contribute to the chaos and increase the likelihood of a nuclear accident or intentional use by a desperate regime," she said.
"Scenarios like this underscore the urgency of a diplomatic effort to cap and roll back Pyongyang's nuclear program and ultimately reduce the risk posed by North Korea."
This is the fifth in a series of interviews with international experts on North Korea to see how its nuclear issues will unfold down the road and seek ways to secure stability on the Korean Peninsula. -- ED.
By Kim Jae-kyoung
 |
| Kelsey Davenport |
She said diplomacy through negotiations is the only way to stop North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship, calling for the Trump administration to give more weight to engagement.
Her warning came as Trump has chosen a policy that will maximize pressure on the reclusive country through tougher sanctions and military signaling, while keeping a door open for engagement.
"If Trump is serious about talking with North Korea and reaching an agreement, this plan could lead to progress on halting and eventually rolling back North Korea's nuclear and missile programs," she said.
"But to get there, Trump needs to signal to Kim Jong-un that the offer for engagement is real. Otherwise, pressure _ without a plan for diplomacy _ is a dead end."
Davenport, who provides research and analysis on nuclear and missile programs in North Korea and Iran, forecast that a pre-emptive strike will result in a military conflict.
"There is a lot of loose talk about a U.S. military strike to prevent a North Korean ICBM test. This rhetoric is dangerous and unhelpful."
She pointed out that in addition to the illegality of a preventative strike, U.S. military action would only inflame tensions, likely lead to a military conflict, and increase the risk of nuclear weapons being used," she said.
"In this case, South Korea would pay the price for Washington's blunder. Diplomacy is the only way to stop North Korea's dangerous and illicit activities."
She recommended the Trump administration "consider all options" when reviewing its policies. "That will acquaint Trump and his advisers with the costs and consequences of certain policy choices," she said.
According to Davenport, additional sanctions have some effect on sending a message that Pyongyang's provocations will not go unpunished but they are short of changing the totalitarian country's behavior.
"Sanctions are not a strategy. They have little chance of success without a plan to engage North Korea in negotiations to first freeze and then roll back its illicit nuclear and missile activities," she said.
Talks without preconditions
The Washington-based North Korea expert said that absent a diplomatic effort, continued nuclear and missile testing in North Korea is inevitable.
"North Korea is clearly taking steps to strengthen its nuclear deterrent and develop the capability to target the United States with its ballistic missiles," she said.
"North Korea could certainly test either on short notice or in response to a perceived provocation by South Korea or the U.S."
Negotiations in her words are the only way to halt the dangerous trajectory of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.
"It will be critical for Trump to move quickly and for both sides to refrain from provocative rhetoric and actions that could cause escalatory spirals and narrow the chances for diplomacy," she said.
Once the South Korean election takes place and Washington confers with Seoul, she said, "The Trump administration should explore the possibility of talks without preconditions designed to freeze and eventually roll back North Korea's nuclear program."
She urged Trump to find the right package of pressure and incentives to spur North Korea to reach an agreement and abide by it.
She said these incentives can be carefully calibrated to ensure that if Kim Jong-un violates a deal, pressure can be quickly reapplied because the U.S. has cards it can play that would be attractive to North Korea.
In her view, reducing military exercises with South Korea, delaying the deployment of missile defenses and offering security guarantees can be possible incentives.
"These are all things the U.S. can put on the table to reach a deal," she said. "Washington can also quickly reverse these actions if North Korea pulls out of an agreement."
She warned that the longer the Trump administration waits, however, the more time North Korea has to advance its nuclear and missile programs.
"These developments will make negotiating more difficult and could result in North Korea demanding a higher price from the United States and its negotiating partners to freeze and then ideally dismantle its capabilities," she said.
Reassessing policy options
Davenport said that once a new leader is elected in the May election, South Korea should take a fresh look at its policies and role in resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis.
"It is imperative that Seoul push back against policy options or tactics that might undermine South Korean security, such as redeploying U.S. nuclear weapons, expanding missile defenses, or preventative strikes on North Korean sites such as missile launch areas," she said.
She thinks these actions risk escalation, possibly toward military conflict, in which South Korea would pay a high price.
"Slowing down missile defense also sends a message to China that South Korea is cognizant of Beijing's concerns about the system and recognizes China should play a role in diplomacy with North Korea," she said.
She also said the U.S. and South Korea should not count on North Korean regime collapse, nor contribute to any collapse by targeting its leaders.
"If the state does collapse, uncertainty about the locations of North Korea's nuclear warheads will contribute to the chaos and increase the likelihood of a nuclear accident or intentional use by a desperate regime," she said.
"Scenarios like this underscore the urgency of a diplomatic effort to cap and roll back Pyongyang's nuclear program and ultimately reduce the risk posed by North Korea."
