By Jun Ji-hye
The United States is rushing to deploy an advanced anti-missile system here possibly before a new South Korean leader takes office, analysts said Tuesday.
Washington is jittery about the possibility that the new leader, who will most likely come from the opposition bloc, could reconsider the deployment decision made by the Park Geun-hye administration, they noted.
However, the rush is triggering concerns here because an early deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery may have serious implications for the next government amid rising protests from China and Russia.
It is obvious that the next government will have to bear the brunt of any hasty deployment.
Some analysts claim that it is improper for President Donald Trump’s administration to push for the deployment while Seoul is suffering from a leadership crisis caused by President Park’s impeachment. They say the issue should be handed over to the next government for possible renegotiations.
If Park’s impeachment is backed by the Constitutional Court this or next month — which seems very likely now — a presidential election will take place two months after the decision, instead of in December under the original schedule.
The original plan announced by the allies in July last year was to deploy the THAAD battery by the end of this year.
But after the visit of U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis last week, speculation has been growing that he and his Korean counterpart, Defense Minister Han Min-koo, might have agreed to move up the schedule for deployment before any election here.
Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia Program at the Center for a New American Security, wrote in his column before the defense ministerial talks, “Secretary Mattis and his Korean counterparts are likely to seek to accelerate the deployment date of the THAAD missile battery, so that it happens prior to the next Korean election.”
After the talks, Seoul’s ministry said the two officials agreed to push for the deployment as planned, but declined to comment on whether the system would be in place before the election.
Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, said it is significant for the United States to finalize the plan at the earliest possible date as the political situation in South Korea has been unstable with some opposition lawmakers even calling for withdrawing the decision to deploy THAAD.
He said Washington probably sees the possibility for an opposition candidate winning the election, so is rushing to deploy the battery out of concerns that the decision could be overturned by the next government.
“Mattis probably visited South Korea to check the ongoing situation here and make sure of the deployment in accordance with the Trump administration’s plan to advance its global missile defense program to protect against missile attacks from North Korea and Iran,” he said.
Indeed, during his two-day visit, Mattis stressed that the THAAD system was absolutely necessary to defend against North Korean threats so the deployment would go as planned.
Mattis said the deployment of the THAAD anti-missile battery is designed to protect the South Korean people and the U.S. troops stationed here, but these can be seen as ostensible reasons, according to Hong Hyun-ik, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
“THAAD is believed to have some limits in defending against North Korean missiles,” Hong said in a radio appearance. “More than this, THAAD plays a decisive role in holding China in check, which is very good for the United States. So, Washington is moving to deploy it as soon as possible.”
Independent lawmaker Kim Jong-hoon urged the impeached Park government to stop pushing policies related to the economy and national security.
“The agreement between Han and Mattis showed the government’s arrogance that neglected the ongoing impeachment trial as well as the Northeast Asian peace order,” he said
Kim said the deployment of the THAAD battery could raise Seoul’s financial burden for the upkeep of the 28,500 American troops in South Korea.
Washington is expected to demand an increase in Seoul’s contribution as President Trump pledged during his campaign to have wealthy allies such as South Korea and Japan shoulder more of the cost of U.S. forces stationed in their countries.
“The THAAD issue should be handed over to the next government and then the National Assembly should make a final decision,” he said.